Political polarization existed long before President Trump’s election in 2016, but his current electoral problems are due to a growing agreement among a majority of people over one thing: They really don’t like him.
A new poll from the New York Times and Siena College released Wednesday found 36% of voters say they currently back Trump, with 50% saying they’ll vote for Joe Biden, the former vice president and presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. Fifty-six percent of voters either somewhat or strongly disapprove of his performance as president, with 47% answering “strongly.”
Much of Trump’s problems come from voters seeing Trump as unprepared to handle issues where people need comfort, not necessarily good policy. He faces extraordinarily low marks on race relations, with 70% of white voters under the age of 45 saying they think George Floyd’s death had to do with systemic racism in law enforcement.
His lowest marks come in his handling of race relations and the protests after the death of Floyd. Sixty-one percent of voters disapprove of his job trying to heal the country, and 62% say the same when it comes to Floyd. Despite his effort at touting the GOP’s First Step Act, 53% of voters disapprove of his handling of criminal justice issues.
Meanwhile, just 38% approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, with 58% saying otherwise. Aside from the more than 100,000 deaths due to the pandemic, the economic toll it has taken means more people are on public assistance than ever before. But voters still say they believe Biden is better equipped to handle the government’s response, even as 50% trust Trump more to handle the economy, compared to 45% who say the same about Biden.
The poll interviewed 1,337 registered voters from June 17-22 and carried a margin of error of 3 points.
But beneath those troubling numbers for the Trump White House lies the president’s chief problem in turning the polls around in his favor: the intensity in which people oppose him. Voters who say they prefer Biden are passionately against Trump, suggesting they are not malleable.
Among all registered voters, according to the New York Times, 50% say they “very unfavorably” disapprove of Trump. Over half of voters, 27%, say they view Trump “very favorably.”
Compared to Biden, 27% of voters say they have a “very unfavorable” opinion of him, and 26% say they view him as “very favorable.” In total, 52% have a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of Biden, 12 points higher than Trump.
For months as Trump has faced continuously poor polling, his campaign regularly responds with the fact that Biden suffers from an enthusiasm gap. In other words, voters may wish to see Trump replaced, but they may not go to the voting booths to make it happen.
But the New York Times/Siena poll suggests that Biden is on his way to significantly closing that gap, as intensity around removing Trump increases during the biggest series of tests of his presidency. None of that is to say that voters necessarily view Biden as a stronger candidate than they did months ago, but many feel a new sense of urgency in electing a Democrat.
This new poll isn’t necessarily news to Trump or his team either. Reports have recently surfaced of Trump’s growing frustration toward his campaign manager Brad Parscale, particularly in the wake of the lackluster showing at his campaign reset rally in Tulsa last week. For the time being, campaign sources told the Washington Examiner, his job appears safe.
“Parscale surprised everyone in 2016 when digital turned out to be so important,” said one campaign adviser on Monday. “But he’s something of a political novice, and the messaging and strategy are all over the place.”
Publicly, Trump’s staff has also dismissed speculation that Parscale’s job is in jeopardy. During an appearance on Fox News that same day, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said the rally was “a huge success” and said the president is excited to hold more rallies in the future.
But the location of those rallies highlights the campaign’s defensive posture. On Tuesday, Trump gave a speech in Phoenix, Arizona, a state he carried by 4 points in 2016. Recent polls there show him falling behind Biden by 2 points.
At the beginning of the year, Trump’s campaign spoke of potentially flipping states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire. Now, however, the campaign is spending millions of dollars in states such as Iowa, which he won in 2016 by over 9 points.
Nor does it seem like Trump is planning trips to any blue states any time soon. In the next few weeks, Trump’s schedule includes red states such as Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
