As redistricting makes safe congressional seats safer, Republicans are eyeing districts held by Democrats but carried by former President Donald Trump in 2020.
With President Joe Biden’s approval rating hovering around 40%, the Republicans appear poised to make gains in these districts. Democrats are trying the same strategy, targeting Republicans representing districts Biden won, though historical patterns suggest their seats are more vulnerable in the midterm elections.
Republicans only need to flip eight seats to take back the House, and there are 10 Trump-won districts held by Democrats.
“There really are not very many swing seats left,” Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund that backs House Republicans, told Politico. “That is forcing us to look at many more Democrat-leaning districts. But the political environment is good enough that we should be able to compete in traditional Democrat territory that we couldn’t in a normal election cycle.”
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While the redistricting has decreased the number of swing districts from about 50 to 31 where the presidential victor was decided by less than 5%, historical precedent shows that Republicans will likely do well in them. In 2006, more than half the Republicans who came from districts that voted for John Kerry lost reelection. In 2010, 36 out of 48 Democrats in districts won by John McCain lost their seats to Republicans.
There are 15 districts where Biden won but a Republican holds the seat, though the president’s low approval rating likely won’t encourage many swing voters to back Democrats.
“It’s hard to run away from an unpopular president, especially in the midterm,” Rep. Ron Kind, a retiring Democrat from Wisconsin, told Politico.
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Democrats are looking to flip some Republican-held seats, but these are in districts where Biden won by 10 points or more or for seats open after a Republican decided not to run in the new district. At the top of their list are Nicole Malliotakis of New York and Mike Garcia and David Valadao of California.
Seven months out from the elections, there is still much that could change. Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and New Hampshire haven’t solidified their new district maps, and lawsuits may upend others.
