Hillary Clinton appears to hold a narrow edge in Florida heading into Election Day.
The small but potentially decisive advantage was built during the early voting period, which concluded on Sunday. Republicans are confident of Donald Trump’s position, but Democratic insiders are encouraged by what they’re seeing in the demographic and regional breakdown of where the early vote and vote-by-mail ballots are coming from.
Key to Clinton’s initial strength is estimates that Florida’s 2016 electorate is going to be more diverse (and therefore less white) than the state’s 2012 electorate. Democrats also believe they’re hitting their numbers in key counties.
As of Saturday, Democrats led in ballots returned in Hillsborough County (Tampa) by more than 6 percentage points and by more than 5 points in the counties that line that Interstate-4 corridor in central Florida. That region is a bellwether in statewide elections in the state.
Here is the tally through Saturday, as compiled by Steve Schale, the Democratic operative who ran President Obama’s successful Florida campaigns in 2008 and 2012:
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Volusia (Daytona) – should lean a little red this year. All votes: 39.7 R, 37.2 D, 23.1 NPA
R + 4,235
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Seminole – suburban Orlando, more white/republican. All votes: 42.6 R, 35.1D, 23.3 NPA
R +10,234
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Orange (Orlando) All votes: 46 D, 30 R, 24 NPA
D +59,800
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Osceola – very Hispanic. All votes: 47.5 D, 26.7 R, 25.9 NPA
D + 20,217
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Imperial Polk – between Tampa/Orlando – lean R All votes: 40.1 R, 39 D, 20.9 NPA
R +1,827
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Hillsborough – twice for [President George W.] Bush, twice for Obama All votes: 42.1 D, 35.8 R, 22.1 NPA
D +24,608
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Pinellas – lean D county on Gulf, west of Tampa All votes: 38.8 R, 38.5 D, 22.7 NPA
R +840
“The other thing in here that is good news for the Democrats, while the I-4 corridor is almost exactly where it should be in terms of projected vote: 26.71% of the state through yesterday, compared to my projection of 26.38%, it isn’t distributed equally,” Schale wrote Sunday in his memo updating Florida’s early vote. “Places over-performing: Osceola and Orange. Under-performing? Polk and Volusia. That almost look like the opposite of a secret-Trump vote surge.”
The public opinion polls show a tossup race for Florida between and Trump. The state’s crucial 29 Electoral College votes are up for grabs. On area of concern for the Democrats has been that they have a larger number of unreturned absentee ballots compared to the Republicans.
Mitt Romney lost Florida to Obama in 2012 by less than 1 point, and the Republican National Committee, which is handling voter turnout and data for Trump, issued a press release saying that it was pleased that GOP early voting is 2 percent higher than it was four years ago.
Democrats are underperforming their 2012 performance by 4.5 percent.
Republicans also trail Democrats in total early and absentee ballots cast by much less than they did in 2012, although some Democrats believe this is because voters who had long voted Republican for president but had remained registered Democrats finally switched their registration to GOP.
