President Joe Biden’s tenuous hold on Congress is impeding his ambition to govern like Franklin D. Roosevelt as the Senate’s filibuster stymies the passage of his liberal agenda.
But the White House’s problem is that polling suggests not all voters understand the complicated rules exacerbating the gridlock after headlines celebrated Democratic “control” of the Senate following the Jan. 5 Georgia runoff elections.
Even an “Einstein” may have trouble following the congressional procedure, according to former California Democratic Party adviser Bob Mulholland. And voters tend to demand more and more from their elected leaders, Mulholland told the Washington Examiner.
“Pass infrastructure and the Uber driver can complain about all the bridge repairs and detours,” he said.
For analyst Dan Schnur, a Republican turned independent now at the University of California, the cardinal rule of political physics is that emotion cannot beat arithmetic.
“Biden has to deal with many frustrated progressives who are upset that he hasn’t moved on their priorities. But the math is unforgiving: As long as the Democratic majorities are so slim, Biden is limited in what he can accomplish,” he said.
The White House’s risk is that inaction will not motivate voters to turn out in the 2022 midterm elections, and Democrats are already poised to notch losses if history is any guide. And with narrow control of both chambers, every ballot will matter.
“If they think that small majorities are aggravating, they should remember that it’s still a lot better than being in the minority,” Schnur added of liberals.
Swept into power in an election that doubled as a referendum on former President Donald Trump, Biden was optimistic that he would be met with a moment of unity in the capital. He also campaigned on the Democrats’ most liberal platform to date, promising a swath of New Deal-esque reforms, from relaxed immigration policies to tax hikes on the wealthy.
But less than six months into his term, partisanship still reigns supreme. Lawmakers may have brokered a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure accord funding brick-and-mortar projects. Yet House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are trying to leverage it to clear comprehensive social welfare programs through the streamlined process known as reconciliation. One of those programs is a Medicare expansion, which Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders wants to introduce through a simple majority of 51, thanks to the Georgia wins and Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
The most high-profile filibusters this Congress have so far thwarted debate on a bill that would have established a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and a measure, called the For the People Act, that would have primarily federalized elections.
Texas Rep. Chip Roy perhaps best voices the prevailing sentiment in Washington. Roy was captured on tape this month saying that Republicans were hoping for “18 more months of chaos and the inability to get stuff done” before the 2022 midterm cycle.
And that feeling is reflected in recent polling indicating that Biden’s popularity is slipping. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating has stayed around 51% during the first week of July, a drop from 55% in January and March. Simultaneously, his disapproval rating rose to 42%, a spike from 34% in January and February.
A June Morning Consult poll distilled some of the confusion surrounding the filibuster. That poll found that 48% of respondents supported the 60-vote threshold for passing legislation, while 27% were against it. Another 25% did not have an opinion. The same poll found that 38% of respondents were for the filibuster when presented with a choice between the 60-vote benchmark or a simple majority. About 45% backed the 51-vote option, while 17% did not know which they preferred.
Biden’s equivocation on the filibuster may be explained by the polarization of the issue itself, too. The Morning Consult poll found that 37% of Democrats supported the filibuster, while 41% were against it. However, when the question was more specific, measuring support for a 60-vote threshold or a simple 51-vote majority, Democrats favored the latter by 57%, with only 27% supporting the current rules. Republicans were more uniformly in favor of the filibuster.
Biden’s conundrum has not stopped him from pushing for his trillion-dollar “soft” infrastructure proposal. Instead, after agreeing to a bipartisan “hard” infrastructure framework, he has focused his efforts this month on building momentum behind the second package.
