President Joe Biden’s move to evacuate at least some U.S. diplomats from Kabul is the latest sign that the Taliban are poised to overthrow the government of Afghanistan in a final refutation of U.S. hopes that Afghan security forces could counteract the militants.
“The situation is basically lost,” an Indo-Pacific intelligence official who has served in Afghanistan told the Washington Examiner. “What the Taliban is doing now is kind of humiliating everybody. … There is very little to prevent them from militarily taking over Kabul as and when they feel like doing it.”
That surging Taliban offensive has driven Afghan civilians from around the country into Kabul, where women and children are pitching tents in city parks as U.S. and British officials race to withdraw personnel from their embassies in the beleaguered capital. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s team has touted the potential for negotiations between the Afghan government and the militants to produce a peace settlement, but even senior State Department officials couldn’t entirely hide their sense of helplessness to stem the Taliban tide.
“Woke up with a heavy heart, thinking about all the Afghan women and girls I worked with during my time in Kabul,” State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Molly Montgomery, the lead official for U.S. engagement with western Europe and the European Union, wrote in a since-deleted tweet. “They were the beneficiaries of many of the gains we made, and now they stand to lose everything. We empowered them to lead, and now we are powerless to protect them.”
‘THEY ARE SITTING IN THE SAME ROOM NOW’: US TOUTS PEACE TALKS AS TALIBAN OFFENSIVE CONTINUES
That despondence dovetails with an independent analysis of the security crisis. “The swiftness of the Taliban sweep across the country has made it extremely unlikely that Kabul will be able to hold out for more than a few weeks,” according to a Eurasia Group assessment released on Friday. “The Taliban now control more territory than when they were last in power in 2001.”
The cascade of Taliban victories continued on Friday with the conquest of Herat and Kandahar, the two largest cities in the country after Kabul. The fall of those cities coincided with the announcement that U.S. forces would deploy to Afghanistan to secure the reduction of the U.S. diplomatic presence in Kabul. About 3,000 troops were set to be part of this effort.
“The U.S. has given up,” the Indo-Pacific intelligence official said. “They were hoping that all this s*** hitting the ceiling would have happened six to eight months later, and it’s happening much faster than expected.”
Even so, Kabul stands as the likeliest refuge for Afghan citizens forced to flee from the Taliban advance across other city centers. More than 240,000 people have been driven from their homes since May, according to a United Nations refugee agency estimate released Monday, and that figure predates the Taliban victories in Herat and Kandahar.
“We call on UN & other international organizations to work with us in providing any type of assistance to massive number of people who have sought refuge in Kabul due to brutality, revenge killing, loot & rape by the Talibs,” Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh tweeted on Monday. “Painful scenes in streets of Kabul.”
Blinken’s team has touted U.S. nonmilitary support for Afghanistan throughout the Taliban offensive, including to Afghan girls. “Education is the foundation for children and youth to build more prosperous futures for themselves, their families, and their communities,” an embassy bulletin pledged Wednesday. “The United States is committed to supporting such life-changing education initiatives to improve access and quality of education for young Afghans for years to come.”
That bulletin was the embassy’s first news release since Saturday, when the diplomatic team in Kabul urged Americans to leave the country immediately and issued a separate message condemning “the Taliban’s violent new offensive since Afghan cities.” It was quickly followed by another security alert on Friday, as the senior officials in Washington prepared to announce the “reduction of civilian personnel” in Kabul, with the support of the Pentagon.
“The situation at the US Embassy in Kabul is more dire than what the State Department is saying,” NPR’s Tom Bowman tweeted Friday. “Mail has stopped. Nearly all employees are packing up and a very small number will head to another location. Staff are gearing up to destroy sensitive papers, computers, phones.”
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State Department spokesman Ned Price emphasized Thursday that the administration is carrying out “a reduction in the size of our civilian footprint,” as opposed to a “wholesale withdrawal” and shuttering of the embassy. U.S. allies in the country are braced for a full withdrawal of Western diplomats from Kabul, but they hope to avoid that extreme outcome.
“The staff and all the logistical arrangements are set to leave [within] 24 hours” if necessary, according to a European official. “We are on high alert … At the same time, if there is a chance, if conditions allow it, we will stay as long as possible. This is an important signal for the Afghan government that NATO is staying, that NATO is still supporting political entities somehow.”
