Polling guru Nate Silver backtracked and moved the U.S. House race in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District to “toss-up” status Monday evening, after it initially appeared that the GOP candidate had won the seat.
Due to “claims of irregularities and fraudulent activities related to absentee by-mail voting,” the contest between Republican Mark Harris and Democrat Dan McCready has yet to be certified by the North Carolina State Board of Elections and Ethics Enforcement.
“Moving NC-9 to Toss-up,” Silver, the editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, tweeted Monday. “As you’ve seen in the other threads, the allegations that voter fraud was committed are very credible, and a new election is fairly likely.”
Silver had previously characterized the race as “Lean R.”
The state board of elections is conducting an investigation and collecting sworn statements from voters alleging that door-knockers encouraged them to surrender their absentee ballots even if they hadn’t been completed. Some voters also claim that they were mailed absentee ballots, but had not requested them.
A focus of the investigation is Leslie McCrae Dowless, who oversaw the mail-in ballot program for Harris, according to the Washington Post. The board will move forward with a hearing on the issue later this month. Additionally, Harris’ campaign has been subpoenaed by the state elections board, which has gathered information indicating that top officials knew of the misconduct.
It’s possible that the state board will hold a new election.
Last week, the Associated Press retracted its original call for Harris — who is less than 1,000 votes ahead of McCready.
“In this case, AP is treating the board’s action as if the race has proceeded to a recount,” the Associated Press said. “AP does not call winners in any election that is subject to a recount. AP will not call the race until state officials certify the results.”
