DES MOINES, Iowa — Well, it’s finally here.
The first Democratic presidential candidate launched his campaign in July 2017. Now, Iowa caucusgoers, who have been relentlessly harangued by campaigns, pollsters, and reporters for more than a year, will on Monday weigh in on which candidate they want to take on President Trump for the White House in the fall.
The primary process has whittled the historically crowded field down to a more manageable size. But the unpredictable nature of caucuses, designed to encourage participants to change their minds, and the unusual number of Iowans who are still undecided before the opening 2020 nominating contest lay the ground for a bumpy ride across this first finish line.
Here are four observations to keep in mind on caucus night:
New rules and the number of tickets out of Iowa
Caucuses are complex.
Candidates need to pull 15% support at individual sites scattered across Iowa, whether it’s a local school gymnasium or church basement, to remain viable in the state’s 1,678 precincts. Backers of candidates who fall short can “realign” with another contender, with their friends, neighbors, and campaign organizers often trying to cajole them into joining their hopeful’s corner.
The caucuses usually serve as a mechanism to narrow the field, but not this year.
For the first time, the Iowa Democratic Party will disclose raw vote counts from the first and final alignments, in addition to the resulting state and national delegate allocations. The extra data points, along with Trump’s Senate impeachment trial, provide lower-tier candidates with a plethora of excuses for a poor performance and reasons to stay in the race.
Some candidates with long-shot bids have already given up on Iowa, focusing their efforts instead on the New Hampshire primary election next week on Feb. 11. Others, such as Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, said this weekend they would compete in the second contest “no matter what.”
“Of course I’m going there. We have a strong operation there, and then going beyond,” Klobuchar, 59, told Fox News Sunday.
Klobuchar and the center-left vote
Even without the release of the famed Iowa Poll, heavy expectations have been placed on the shoulders of former Vice President Joe Biden, 77, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, 78, to nab the plurality of Iowa’s 41 delegates up for grabs on Monday night.
With candidates needing a majority of the cycle’s total available 3,979 delegates to secure the nomination, Biden’s campaign is flatlining, while Sanders’s is peaking at the opportune moment. The season’s perennial front-runners, buoyed by name recognition, are followed by former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 38, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 70.
Yet, it is Klobuchar who is Iowa’s dark horse.
According to a Monmouth University poll, Biden and Sanders could be tied up with 22% support apiece if she and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, 45, reach the 15% threshold during a precinct’s first round of voting. If she and Yang are knocked out of contention, however, Biden receives 29% to Sanders’s 25% on second alignment.
Rumors of a caucus alliance between the Biden and Klobuchar camps, where the pair would exchange committed caucusgoers should the other lose viability status, were quickly and repeatedly quashed by the candidates.
“No deals. In fact, they just approached someone who was affiliated with our campaign but not on our staff and some evening in Des Moines, asked them about it. He said no. We said no. There is no deal,” Klobuchar said Sunday.
Also watch for horse-trading between the top four contenders, Yang, and fellow businessman Tom Steyer, 62.
Liberal momentum
The overarching question of the 2020 Democratic primary is whether the best way to beat Trump in November is with a center-left or more liberal candidate at the top of the ticket.
While caucuses tend to offer fertile ground for activists to assert their influence, a Sanders win in Iowa followed by a strong showing in his neighboring state of New Hampshire could put an end to the conjecture.
Though Warren has clashed with her ideological ally Sanders in recent weeks and her polling numbers have slid, a solid outing in Iowa could bolster their argument that Democrats should stand for a “revolution” and “big, structural” change rather than piecemeal pragmatism.
Despite calls for unity among the different factions of the party, developments, such as reports that former Secretary of State John Kerry was considering a second presidential bid, are evidence that fissures continue to exist between leading members.
Turnout in proceedings that can take hours on a cold February night
It isn’t groundbreaking to suggest that caucuses, and elections more generally, hinge on turnout, but that’s because it’s true.
Last week at a college campus in Iowa, Sanders warned his supporters, many of whom are younger and caucusing for the first time, that if participation rates were low, “we’re going to lose — simple as all that.” It matters who shows up, whether they skew older or younger, whether they have a college degree or not, and in Biden’s case, whether they identify as Catholics. However, in a caucus state where rural areas have more sway than densely populated, urban ones, akin the Electoral College, it also matters where they show up.
Turnout is a barometer for enthusiasm heading into the general election as well.
Record participation during the 2018 midterm cycle was seen as a referendum on Trump’s first two years in office. With the weather expected to be mild on Monday night, at least by Iowa standards, Democratic strategists and political commentators will take note of how many people gather to caucus, or whether they have grown weary of Washington and its political games.
