The North Carolina Republican nomination fight has reached a low boil but won’t fully heat up until former President Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, Tar Heel State native Lara Trump, decides whether to run.
The specter of a Lara Trump Senate candidacy hasn’t stopped other high-profile Republican political figures from jumping in, such as former Gov. Pat McCrory and Mark Walker, a six-year House member until this January. But it is keeping other prospective aspirants on the sidelines for now.
With near-universal name recognition and the ability to tap a vast network of Republican donors, Trump has the luxury of time before deciding whether to run for the seat Republican Sen. Richard Burr is set to vacate after the 2022 elections.
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“To some degree on the Republican side, there does seem to be this sense, certainly among some people, to wait and see whether Lara Trump is going to enter the race or not,” Steve Greene, a political science professor at North Carolina State University, told the Washington Examiner.
A poll released by GOP polling firm Cygnal, obtained by the Hill, showed Trump had a double-digit lead in support over her potential opponents. Trump received 32.4% of support in an eight-way primary contest and scored the highest net favorability rating with 66.6%.
In a state Donald Trump narrowly won twice in 2016 and 2020, it remains to be seen whether MAGA sensibilities dominate the GOP primary electorate, said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, former top House leadership staff member, and North Carolina native.
“If they’re going to want somebody who is going to be a carbon copy [of] Trump, someone with that last name comes in with a significant advantage,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “If they’re looking for those traditional conservatives who will be able to best beat a Democrat, that’s a very different calculation that favors a Walker or potentially a McCrory.”
Return to roots
Trump, 38, grew up in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, and graduated from North Carolina State University in 2005. Shortly after, she moved to New York City to pursue culinary school and has worked as a chef, a personal trainer, and a TV producer.
The now-Fox News contributor married Eric Trump, the former president’s middle son, in 2014, with whom she has two children. During the Trump campaign, Lara Trump served as a senior adviser and spearheaded the Women for Trump coalition.
In Trump’s 2016 campaign, Lara Trump emphasized the importance of winning North Carolina, offering her help to mobilize voters in the state.
“When my father-in-law decided he was running for president, I said to him, ‘Look, this is my home. I know the people in North Carolina, and I want to go down there. You can send me anytime you want,'” Trump told Port City Daily in September 2016.
Though Trump hasn’t lived in North Carolina in almost 14 years, she made her upbringing in her home state a central theme of her speech at the 2020 Republican National Convention last year.
“I wasn’t born a Trump. I was raised a Carolina girl,” Trump said during the August convention.
Heye said Trump would need to reestablish residency to run, and North Carolina law requires voters to be registered to vote 90 days before the filing deadline, which is in December.
Trump’s absence might also be challenging to compete with other candidates such as McCrory, who has strong local ties. McCrory was mayor of Charlotte from 1995 to 2009 before serving a term as governor from 2013 to 2017. He also hosts a Charlotte-based radio show in which he discusses state and national issues.
“Pat McCrory is well known in the state, obviously having been elected statewide, and he’s remained a presence in the state with his radio show in Charlotte, and you see him out and about,” Heye said.
Trump is on the ballot, with or without Lara
Burr, who is one of five senators retiring next year, is also among seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot that left five people dead.
That got him censured by the North Carolina GOP, and party Chairman Michael Whatley said he’s confident whoever hopes to replace the 65-year-old senator will have to embrace Trump’s agenda, given his remaining popularity.
“We’re definitely going to have an America First candidate come out of this primary,” Whatley told the Washington Examiner. “I think that is an agenda that the overwhelming majority of our Republican primary voters stand behind.”
Greene said the former president’s hold on his base makes it tough for someone such as McCrory, who’s been more critical of Trump than other potential candidates.
“He’s very much seen as that old-school Republican establishment,” Greene said. “I think he won’t end up lasting that long. I think he won’t have the money, won’t have the support in the polls. It’s just such a different political environment than when he first became governor here in 2012.”
Others, such as Walker and Rep. Ted Budd, a member of the House Freedom Caucus who is also considering a run, are likely to paint themselves deeper into the realm of the former president. Walker’s campaign even referred to the former House member as the “most pro-Trump member” of the state’s congressional delegation.
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But no matter how much candidates try and embrace the Trump agenda, it would be a steep challenge to take on someone who already has that namesake if his daughter-in-law were to announce a run, Greene said.
“Lara Trump running or not, it’s fair to say that the Republican primary for the Senate is going to be, ‘Who is the Trumpiest? Who is the truest heir to Donald Trump?'” Greene said. “It’s just a lot harder for those other guys to make that case when you’re literally running against someone named Trump and is part of the family.”
