Dem Leaders: Contest Over Before Denver

National Journal takes a weekly poll of Democratic and Republican ‘insiders,’ to get their views on the question of the week. This week, they ask the Democrats when their nominating fight will be wrapped up. Fewer than 10 percent believe it will take until the convention, with more than 80 percent saying it will be decided sometime between June and August. Interestingly, while almost all of the insiders seem to agree that the fight will be over before the convention, there appears to be little agreement on who the nominee will be, or by what criteria the nominee will be selected. Here are a few illustrative (and anonymous) quotes:

“Unfortunately, not until June, when the pledged-delegate count will unassailably affirm Obama’s victory in that category. Then, and only then, will Clinton concede and in effect let the uncommitted superdelegates go the way of the pledged delegates.” “By that time we will know the winner of the popular vote, who has the momentum with a majority of the late wins, and who is leading in the national polls-i.e., who is perceived as the most electable. I believe that the undecided superdelegates will coalesce around the candidate that is ahead on two of the three criteria listed above.” “Obama’s minister issue hurts him and may begin to convert superdelegates to Hillary or, at a minimum, will likely freeze them. On top of that, the rapidly tanking economy works well for Hillary. All of that would suggest that Hillary has the advantage…”

The NJ survey includes 87 Democratic leaders, strategists, and advisers. They include names such as Donna Brazile, Tony Coelho, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Harold Ickes, and John Podesta. Reading the quotes gives you a sense as to the dread associated with a long battle, as well as the challenge of reconciling the strong and divergent views of party leaders. If you’re a Republican, the best thing to do is grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

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