Karl Rove, the man President Bush admiringly dubbed “the architect” following the successful Bush-Cheney re-election effort of 2004, has been encouraging congressional Republicans to “get their act together” before the November election brings another electoral disaster.
Rove’s analysis was on full display Sunday on “Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.” Read the following exchange closely, noting especially the six points – three “strategic” and three “tactical” – he believes are essential to GOP recovery:
“WALLACE: Let’s start with some numbers, because I know how you like numbers. Take a look at a recent New York Times poll which found that in a generic ballot question — which party do you intend to vote for in November’s House election? — 50 percent chose the Democrat. Thirty-two percent said the Republican.
“And Congressman Tom Davis sent a 20-page memo to his GOP colleagues in which he said the political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November is the worst since Watergate. Is the situation that bad?
“FORMER BUSH POLITICAL ADVISOR KARL ROVE: The Republicans have got three things they need to do strategically and three things they need to do tactically. Strategically, they better get their act together with an aggressive agenda of reform here at home about the things people are talking around the kitchen table.
“What are the Republicans going to do about health care? What are they going to do about providing reliable and affordable energy? What are they going to do about jobs and keeping our economy innovative and competitive, encouraging exports? What are we going to do about helping people grapple with the cost of college education?
“We’ve got great answers, Republicans do, on this, but they better get their act together in laying this out in a comprehensive way.
“Now, [House Minority Leader John] Boehner understands this. He began several weeks ago — several months ago, actually — working with Rep. Adam Putnam and Rep. Eric Cantor, two of his lieutenants, particularly Adam Putnam, to get buy- in to such an agenda. But they need to lay it out.
“In addition, they have to be very clear about there are consequences of victory and defeat in Iraq. And finally, they’ve got to show sharp contrast with the Democrats. They’ve got to find ways during the course of legislative debate to say, “Here’s where we stand, and here’s where the Democrats stand.”
“WALLACE: Well, you talk about showing contrasts with Democrats. The primary tactic in some of these election races seemed to be put up a picture of Barack Obama and say the local candidate is a liberal.
“ROVE: Yeah. No, look. There are three tactical changes they need to make, and the biggest one is they need to treat the arguments of the Democrats as substantive and get away from labels. Example: In the Mississippi special election — look, the Democrats in these races are running pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax conservatives, pro-prayer-in-school conservatives.
“You can’t stand up and say, ‘That conservative Democrat over there is a liberal.’ You need to treat them — you know, running an ad that says “liberal, liberal, liberal” is just not going to work. You need to treat their arguments substantively and engage on the merits.
“WALLACE: Well, you talk about — you identified the problems where you say they need a reform agenda — tax reform, earmarks, energy. Give me one example in just one area of where you think that there’s a dramatic solution they could offer that would really contrast and say to the voter, ‘Hey, I’m going to go for the Republican, not the Democrat.’
“ROVE: Let me give you two. Taxes. We ought to keep taxes low. And no earmarks at all. Moratorium on earmarks. None. To health care, Republicans are in favor of saying you ought to be able to save tax-free for your out-of-pocket health care expenses.
“If you get health care regardless of whether you get it from your employer or out of your own pocket, you ought to get a big deduction on your income taxes. Small businesses ought to be able to band together to pool their risks to get lower rates like the big companies do.
“And we ought to stop the junk and frivolous lawsuits that are driving up the cost of health care. I could give you a few more things on health care like that, but my point is the Republicans have got a plan. They need to go out there and be talking about it.”
Two things: First, Rove says Republicans must “show contrasts” with Democrats and, second, they have to get “a plan” and “go out there and be talking about it.” Put another way, Rove is encouraging Boehner, Putnam et. al., to get out there and tell people Republicans are different from Democrats. That has been the Washington Republican Establishment’s conventional wisdom for decades. And it used to work fairly well.
But if Rove’s analysis is the essence of the GOP strategy between now and November, the Republican disaster come election day will be monumental. Why? Because no matter what happens on the presidential side of the campaign, the governing reality on the congressional side is that the congressional Democrat majority has the lowest Gallup Poll rating ever … BUT congressional Republicans are even less popular!
In other words, the GOP can talk till they are blue in the face between now and November about “contrasts” with the Democrats BUT NOBODY BELIEVES THEM ANYMORE. The day is long gone when Republicans can talk their way back into the majority.
The only thing that can save the GOP are concrete actions that may persuade sufficient numbers of voters that this time, the Republicans will actually do what they say they will do if they are returned to the majority in Congress. The GOP “brand” is so damaged that there is no guarantee that doing these things will get Republicans back in control of the levers of congressional power.
What kind of concrete actions? Here are five, for starters. Note that each requires every Republican Member to do something tangible that is clearly contrary to the norm for people who put their self-interest ahead of the national interest. Add five more similarly concrete measures and we’ve got a new Contract with America that people will take seriously:
TERMINATE EARMARKS
First, every Republican Member of Congress – Senate and House – must agree to withdraw all standing earmark requests and to seek no more earmarks for any reason in the future. As proof of the GOP’s seriousness, both GOP congressional campaign committees and the Republican National Committee withdraw all financial and other re-election support for any incumbent GOPer who refuses to sign and abide by this pledge and the following three as well.
SEEK TERM LIMITS
Second, every Republican Member in Congress must co-sponsor a constitutional amendment providing term limits for Congress – three House terms and two senate terms – which is to be introduced as soon as possible AND agree to abide by the terms of the amendment and campaign for its adoption by their home state legislatures.
START ENTITLEMENT REFORM
Third, every Republican Member must co-sponsor legislation canceling the special congressional provisions of the federal retirement program for all active incumbents and replacing it for each Member with Social Security benefits calculated on the basis of the national median individual income.
NO MORETAXES
Fourth, every Republican Member must co-sponsor legislation making the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 permanent, abolishing the AMT and proposing a constitutional amendment requiring that federal spending not exceed federal revenues in any single year unless approved by super-majorities of the Senate and House, exept in times of congressionally declared war.
STOP THE SPENDING
Having withdrawn all standing earmarks requests, all Republican Members will vote against any spending bill brought to a floor vote that contains a spending increase greater than the cost of living or earmarks.
ENFORCEMENT OF THESE PLEDGES:
In addition to the party committee sanctions noted in the first pledge, all Republican Members will promise to resign if the party regains the majority but fails to fulfill all five pledges within two years. And for good measure concerning GOP Members who decline to sign and work for the five pledges, the party committees offer at least $250,000 to a credible primary challenger who will sign and abide by these pledges.
UPDATE:
Bruce Kesler of Democracy Project says the “drastic” nature of the five pledges above demonstrates “just demonstrates how deep the hole in to which they’ve dug themselves, and us who depended upon them.” He also notes this article in The New York Times today regarding a package of proposals being put forth by the Republican Study Committee to revive the GOP. I wasn’t aware of this new RSC initiative but the contents of it strike me as a good step forward but for one thing – it’s all still just talk.
And note the insistence on keeping earmarks:
“Some of the ideas from the conservatives have been circulating for months, including an immediate moratorium on seeking money for the pet home-state projects known as earmarks. But other Republicans have rejected that idea, arguing it is a chief responsibility of representatives to win federal aid for local initiatives.”
These people are hopeless.
UPDATE II:
Erick Erickson at RedState.com points to the Bush administration’s lack of development of proposals centered on the Opportunity Society: “One of the great failures of the Bush administration is that it failed to do anything with the concept of the “ownership society.” The GOP and the nation would be better off had it.”
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