This new Zogby poll is interesting for a couple reasons. First, as I’ve suggested in earlier posts, Obama’s numbers will creep up in head-to-head match-ups as it becomes clear to people he’s the nominee, giving Clinton partisans some time to reassess–and conduct anger management therapy. This poll offers some evidence of that, showing Obama now with a 10 point lead (47%-37%) among likely voters. Adding third party candidates Ralph Nader who draws 4% overall and Bob Barr who garners 3% into the mix also has an impact. Many other public polls either don’t ask about the third party candidates or don’t report results. Adding Nader and Barr, along with the 10% of undecided voters, shifts these numbers compared to other surveys. According to the crosstabs, Nader draws 6% support of the self identified liberals and 3% among those that describe themselves as “progressives.” Barr cuts into McCain’s potential base support a little more, drawing 22% of those that describe themselves as “libertarian” and 10% of the very conservative. So will the Barr and Nader voters just offset each other? If they both stay at around 4% of the total electorate, yes. But as the race heats up, monitoring how the numbers rise or decline among the Barr and Nader voters, particularly in battleground states bears watching.
