Republicans are gaining steam in the fight for Congress, overtaking the Democrats in public opinion polls gauging voter preferences for party control on Capitol Hill.
A fresh ABC News/Washington Post survey put the Republicans 10 percentage points ahead of the Democrats on this key 2022 measuring stick, pushing them to 44.1% and in front by nearly 1 point in the RealClearPolitics average of the 10 most recent surveys. That poll was the third of six this month to project the Republicans with an edge in the race for the majority in the House and Senate.
Democrats led in the other three November public opinion surveys, revealing a competitive midterm elections landscape. But their average advantage of 4 points was less than half of the GOP’s 8.3 points as of Monday afternoon. With President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings still in the tank at 42% despite the passage of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, House Republicans have moved beyond projecting confidence about the midterm elections to gloating.
“There is no good news for House Democrats and their historically thin majority,” Mike Berg, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.
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The Republicans entered the 2022 cycle well-positioned to recapture the House majority they lost in 2018 under former President Donald Trump. The Democrats hold a virtually ungovernable five-seat majority after losing 14 seats last November. Between a decennial redistricting process expected to favor the GOP and historical trends leaving the party in the White House at a disadvantage in midterm elections, the odds of Democrats defending their majority were slim from the outset.
Republicans in the Senate have generally been more circumspect about their prospects despite needing to flip just one Democratic-held seat to win control of the chamber. Democrats hold just 50 seats, owing their majority to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. Senate Republicans have their work cut out for them — defending seats in states such as Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while going on offense in Democratic-trending states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
But Republican strategists involved in Senate races are beginning to presume the same momentum claimed by their counterparts in House races, believing their opportunities for pickups now extend to bona fide blue states, such as Colorado. After veteran Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy, 81, of Vermont announced Monday that he would retire next year after eight terms, Republicans chalked it up to political headwinds and a desire to avoid being a member of the minority party.
“Pat Leahy is smart enough to see the signs of building Republican momentum that threaten to sweep his party out of power,” said Steven Law, president of Senate Leadership Fund, in a statement. “As angry Americans continue to register their discontent with Democratic mismanagement of the country, there is little doubt this is a canary in the coal mine for Democrats’ fragile Senate majority.”
The Senate Leadership Fund is a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
In the six generic ballot polls conducted in November and listed on the RealClearPolitics average, Republicans led 51% to 41% (ABC News/Washington Post), 46% to 38% (USA Today/Suffolk), and 49% to 42% (Emerson). The Democrats led 44% to 37% (Economist/YouGov), 44% to 42% (Politico/Morning Consult), and 49% to 44% (CNN). The Democrats still enjoy a slight lead of 42.4% to 41.8% in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot polling average.
Some Democratic insiders argue that Republicans are measuring the drapes far too soon. They emphasize that some of the same polling that shows Democrats in trouble on the 2022 ballot also shows that critical components of their party’s agenda are quite popular. Biden is among those who have expressed optimism that Democrats’ political circumstances will change as voters feel the impact of the infrastructure bill and the party’s social spending legislation still being negotiated in Congress.
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But experienced Democratic strategists who are deeply involved in the midterm elections are less sanguine, conceding their party is in a “tough spot,” from which it might not recover prior to Election Day.
“Voters clearly don’t think we’re doing enough to help” improve their economic situation, a Democratic operative said. “It’s all about the bottom line for working families.” Election Day is less than a year away.
