Whether or not North Korea’s mercurial dictator Kim Jong Un is dead or alive, President Trump needs to repair Asian regional defense relationships, said former CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Bruce Klingner.
“We’re trying to nickel and dime our allies at a time when this is a reminder of the North Korean threat that faces all of us — as well as the China threat that faces all of us,” said Klingner, now a Heritage Foundation analyst, who added that now more than ever, Trump should see the value of our troop presence in Asia.
“The bottom line is we really don’t know what Kim’s condition is,” Klingner told the Washington Examiner Monday.
Klingner believes there is danger in the Trump administration’s disregard for an unplanned succession in a country with nuclear weapons pointed at the United States.
“We’ve seen no indication that it’s changed the administration’s view,” said the longtime Korea watcher, who began studying intelligence from the peninsula in 1993.
Klingner said Kim’s poor diet and heavy smoking make him “one chocolate wafer away from a heart attack,” but added that Kim’s absence from the public view doesn’t mean he is dead or incapacitated.
“If I had to put my money on it, I’d say he’s not dead yet,” he said. “Longtime watchers are just saying, ‘Look, we don’t know. No one knows. We have to wait for the announcement: Just sit back and have another drink.’”
The analyst said the previous two regime changes have been made public within days of the death of the leader.
Rumors about Kim’s death have persisted now for two weeks. News about a possible death or incapacitation have been largely based on individual sources and an “echo chamber” of interpretations.
“Even U.S. intelligence may not know what’s going on,” the former intelligence analyst said. Reports surfaced about Kim’s absence at the April 15 birthday of his grandfather. They continued with reports that China supposedly sent a medical team to North Korea.
Klingner said both reports could be related to the regime’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak or Kim’s ongoing recovery from an alleged heart surgery.
If Kim is dead, Klingner says it is probable that his sister, Kim Yo Jong, the darling of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, could take over despite North Korea’s Confucian, male-dominated society.
“Right now, the sister seems to have the inside track,” he said, pointing to her “Mount Paektu” bloodline to North Korea’s founder, Kim Il Sung, and her recent increase in public titles and prestige.
As far as a capitulation of the regime or changing its posture regarding nuclear weapons, the analyst says both are possible but unlikely.
“The two previous times we had succession, when people were nervous, the system work[ed]. The regime wants to maintain itself,” he said. “All the Kims have said that the nuclear program is the basis of their security. They have to defend themselves against the outside enemies.”
In the meantime, Seoul and Tokyo have suffered diminished military relations with the U.S. thanks in part to Trump’s long-standing doubts about foreign military deployments and his desire to recoup, with profit, the cost of basing troops whose mission in part is to protect an ally in other countries.
“Having our forces there is not only a deterrent to the bad guys, but it’s also a tangible manifestation of our promise to our allies,” said Klingner, adding that canceled exercises with South Korea and lockdowns amid the COVID-19 outbreak have further debilitated readiness.
“It is in our interest to have our forces overseas,” he said. “North Korea has nuclear weapons. They have ICBMs. They can reach the United States with nuclear weapons. They can certainly reach our allies.”
Since taking office, Trump has toughened his negotiating position on getting reimbursed for the cost of basing troops overseas. In South Korea, Klingner said the cost of basing some 28,500 troops is about $1.5 billion.
In 2019, South Korea increased its payments to the U.S. to help support troop presence by 8.2% to $870 million. A similar incremental increase has so far been rejected by negotiators at the direction of the president.
“A year ago, during the previous iteration in negotiations, he directed the negotiators to get cost plus-50%,” said Klingner. “Now, he’s directed that they make an even bigger profit.”
In February, when the South Korean defense minister visited the Pentagon, talks had stalled with Trump’s asking price of $5 billion.
Klingner added: “Our sons and daughters, including my son, who is a Marine captain in Afghanistan, are not mercenaries.”
