Since this has been such a big year for political surprises and Crazy Ivan style last minute twists and turns, your Cardinal would be remiss in not noting the significant possibility of a Hillary Clinton upset win in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary. Now don’t get me wrong. I’ve been predicting Obama will be the Democratic nominee for more than a year, often to the cackles of experts who would remind me about Hillary’s unstoppable machine and fearsome “ground game” (whatever that is). I still believe he is likely to be the Democratic nominee. I’d peg his odds now at about 75-80 percent. But Wisconsin is a loose screw in the Obama surge machine. Polls show HRC only behind by 5-6 points which is nothing in a primary. Wisconsin’s primary electorate is cheese loving and lily white, a disadvantage to Obama who while competitive with white voters always does better when he enters a primary with a monolithic hunk of the black vote locked in for him. That way he can lose to Clinton among everybody else and still win elections. Much like New Hampshire, Hillary is again on the ropes and facing a possible electoral death sentence. In New Hampshire that led to a late dynamic of mercy and comeback. My head tells me Obama ekes out a Wisconsin win, but I think it is close. If she wins, she’s still in big trouble but back in the game. If he wins, I think the long grind to the convention will be a death march for Das Clinton Apparat.
