Joe Biden came in fourth place in a poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucuses voters released Friday, adding to signs that the former vice president and the one-time front-runner is in danger of showing poorly in the first-in-the-nation state nominating contest.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren led the field in the New York Times/Siena College Iowa poll released Friday, with 22% support, followed by Vermont Sen. Sanders at 19%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 18%, and Biden at 17%.
Biden’s campaign staff has tempered expectations about him winning Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two nominating contests in the Democratic presidential primary, instead turning focus to South Carolina, where he maintains a lead, and Super Tuesday states. Iowa officials who have endorsed Biden are worried about his campaign’s attitude toward the state and cite the state director not living Iowa as one reason for his fragile position in the race.
The poll pushed Biden to third place in the RealClearPolitics average of primary polls in Iowa, which finds Warren at 22.3%, Buttigieg at 17%, Biden at 15.7%, and Sanders at 15.3%. Biden led in the average by up to 10.5 points through mid-September, but then Warren began to pass him in many polls.
Meanwhile, Buttigieg has emerged as a prominent alternative to Biden for Democrats uncomfortable with ultra-progressive Sanders or Warren leading the ticket in 2020 as Biden’s flailing in the polls and lackluster fundraising sparks worries about whether Biden is electable enough to beat President Trump.
The poll also spells trouble for California Sen. Kamala Harris, who this week laid off many of her national campaign staff and redirected attention and resources to Iowa. She got 3% support in the poll, tied for sixth place with tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar was in fifth place with 4% support.
Friday’s poll is the first Iowa poll conducted by New York Times/Siena College in the 2020 Democratic primary. It surveyed 439 likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa from Oct. 25-30 and has a margin of error of 4.7 points.
