Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney could lose a contest or two in Tuesday’s three-state showdown, a series of contests that could finally yield a victory for Rep. Ron Paul or offer former Sen. Rick Santorum a chance to reclaim the title of top conservative alternative to Romney.
While Romney is perceived by pollsters and political pundits to be coasting toward the GOP nomination, Tuesday’s contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri are seen by the candidates trailing him as the opportunity to regain momentum and steal a bit of the front-runner’s thunder.
Romney is taking that threat seriously enough that his camp on Monday unleashed an attack against Santorum with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a one-time presidential contender himself, telling reporters that Santorum “has been a champion” of pork barrel spending during his years in Congress.
Romney trails Santorum by 2 percentage points in the latest Minnesota poll. Romney leads in Colorado, but Santorum still has a shot at winning there thanks to the state’s large evangelical voting bloc.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who won South Carolina’s primary but lost the last two contests in Florida and Nevada to Romney, faces steep challenges across all three states voting Tuesday. Gingrich lacks the organizational muscle needed in caucus states like Colorado and Minnesota. In Missouri, which is holding a primary, Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot.
For Santorum and Paul, Tuesday’s contests are an opportunity to reinvigorate their campaigns.
Paul has a well-coordinated and enthusiastic following in Minnesota that’s will turnout in large numbers at the caucus meetings. Polls show Paul trailing in the state and he has yet to win a caucus or primary, but the kind of organization and loyalty he built in Minnesota could help him break through.
“This could be Ron Paul’s first win,” University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs told The Washington Examiner.
Paul placed third in Nevada’s caucuses on Saturday, better than pollsters predicted.
“Just as in [Nevada], Ron Paul will probably out-perform his pre-election polling in virtually all the upcoming caucuses,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said via Twitter.
Santorum is leading the pack in Minnesota, according to the latest poll. In Colorado and Missouri, the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania will have a chance to test his strength against Romney without much interference from Gingrich, who failed to qualify for Missouri’s ballot.
Missouri’s primary isn’t binding because delegates to this summer’s GOP convention will not be chosen until later, but a win could help Santorum build the case that he is the most electable conservative alternative to Romney. Santorum said he expects to “do exceptionally well” in Missouri.
While Paul could be a tough competitor in Minnesota, Santorum’s message may resonate with the state’s growing faction of voters who identify themselves as evangelicals or Tea Party supporters. Santorum, a conservative Catholic with strong religious views, won the Iowa caucuses in large part because evangelical voters turned out for him.
Santorum is also counting on evangelical turnout in Colorado.
“It’s less than a 50-50 chance,” University of Colorado political science professor Kenneth Bickers said of Santorum’s chances. “But it’s Santorum’s shot to get back into the game in Colorado.”
