The Bertelsmann Foundation has released a survey “on the view of Germany held by Jews in Israel and the USA, and the view of Israel from Germany.” The full survey is available here, but the most interesting results, I think, are those relating to the threat posed by a nuclear Iran. At 62 percent, a significant majority of Germans understand the Iranian nuclear program to be an existential threat to the state of Israel. That number is slightly higher among Israelis, at 75 percent, and American Jews, at 73 percent.
The next question asks respondents if a military strike against Iran would be justified if negotiations fail. Interestingly, 80 percent of Israelis believe such action would be justified, which means that 5 percent believe an attack would be justified despite the fact that Iran doesn’t pose an existential threat to the country. The same number of American Jews that believe Iran to be a threat to Israel likewise responded that an attack would be justified. But among Germans, only 32 percent believed an attack would be justified. Which is half the number that believe Iran to be a threat to the Jewish state’s very existence. Can it be that one-third of Germans expect Israel to sit by idly while facing such a threat?
The third question explains the gap between the number of Germans who understand Iran to be a serious threat and the number who would consider military action justified if all other efforts at a peaceful solution fail. When asked if they believe that “there are situations that arise in the world in which military force must be used?” Only 39 percent of Germans answered yes. Not surprisingly, American and Israeli Jews answered yes by an overwhelming margin.
It seems reasonable to assume that German public is a good indicator of public opinion across Western Europe on the issue of Iran. If a vast majority of Germans can’t conceive of using military force no matter what the circumstance, and wouldn’t support Israeli action despite the fact that they understand a nuclear Iran to pose an existential threat to Israel, most Europeans likely agree–a sentiment reflected in the comments of French President Jacques Chirac earlier this month. If push comes to shove, Europe will oppose military action, no matter how strong the evidence against Iran, so why bother trying to make the case at all.
