“A fact can be a beautiful thing,” sings one of the characters in the award-winning musical, “Promises, Promises.” True. Unfortunately, a gaggle of facts can be somewhere between confusing and a curse, especially if you are a central banker who has specialized in promises, promises that a process of normalization will begin after seven years of zero interest rates. Now, faced with its next meeting less than two weeks hence, the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary policy committee has to decide whether to replace promises with action.
The most-watched set of facts was released late week. The economy added only a disappointing 173,000 jobs in August, a mere 140,000 in the private sector, the smallest increase since March 2008, and the labor force participation rate continues to decline, even after 66 consecutive months of job creation. Although August job figures are typically revised upward, these data support those who would have the Fed stay its hand. But the three-month average of new jobs is around 200,000, which is about twice the growth rate of the work force, the unemployment rate is down to 5.1%, usually regarded as full employment, and average hourly earnings continue to move up, all facts that dictate raising rates before inflation takes off. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed and a voting member of the monetary policy committee, had said “It’s time to align our monetary policy with the significant progress we have made,” and repeated that call for an increase in interest rates after examining yeserday’s job report.
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