Republicans in Washington are keeping a close eye on President Trump and whether he has the political juice to push Sen. Luther Strange to victory in the deadlocked special election contest for an Alabama Senate seat.
Trump’s foray into the campaign with a scheduled Friday evening rally in a key Northern Alabama battleground is risky.
Strange has trailed Roy Moore in public opinion polls, and many of Trump’s usual allies are working feverishly against him to elect the upstart challenger.
A rebuke in Alabama, Ground Zero for the president’s political base, could leave Trump politically diminished heading into the 2018 midterm elections and impact how much pull he has with Republicans on Capitol Hill in the months ahead.
Most Senate Republicans, desperate to prevent Moore from bringing his fiery conservatism to Capitol Hill, are banking on Trump to be the coup de grace in this race. “The question is will he have an impact on the primary runoff, and I’m saying oh hell yeah he will,” Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., said.
“President Trump will really matter in that race,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., added. “Coming out for Luther Strange in that race is a game-changer.”
Privately, Republican insiders worry that Trump’s seal of approval won’t be enough to push Strange past Moore, the former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. A Moore upset could trigger a wave of primary challenges against GOP incumbents in the midterm.
Strange has been tagged as the establishment candidate, in part due to heavy backing he received from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. That’s a problem in a state where going establishment is a mortal political sin.
“Transference is a difficult thing to accomplish in politics,” a Republican strategist said, when asked if Trump’s outsider status is enough to absolve Strange. “The president’s brand is a predatory brand. If he wants to win this race, he has to go to Huntsville and knife Roy Moore and tell people Roy’s act is a scam.”
That’s the approach McConnell’s affiliated super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has taken in a final round of television and radio ads highlighting Trump’s endorsement while also presenting Moore as corrupt and the opposite of the godly image he has cultivated among his loyal supporters.
Dean Young, Moore’s top political adviser, said he expects Trump’s endorsement and Friday evening campaign rally in Huntsville to help Strange, but not enough to rescue the senator from defeat.
Young brazenly questioned Trump’s decision to stake his credibility on Strange, while emphasizing that Moore supports the president and his agenda “100 percent.”
“President Trump is taking an unnecessary risk and is in danger of hurting his clout in the future,” Young told the Washington Examiner in a telephone interview. “I don’t understand why he’s doing it. But he won’t get any flack from us.”
Strange, 64, was appointed to the Senate in January after popular Republican Jeff Sessions resigned to become U.S. attorney general.
The winner of Tuesday’s special GOP primary runoff proceeds to almost certain victory against the Democratic nominee in the December general election, for the right to complete the six-year term Sessions won three years ago.
Moore, 70, has a few GOP supporters in the House Freedom Caucus. But most Senate Republicans are anxiously hoping that Strange comes out on top. That includes Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who endorsed Strange and calls him an old friend who has done well in the Senate. Asked if he’s concerned about Moore causing problem for his fellow Republicans in the Senate, Shelby paused for a moment before saying simply: “He’s unique.”
Moore was kicked off the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to honor the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision legalizing same-sex marriage. Republicans worry that his rebelliousness and penchant for sharp rhetoric when discussing his opposition to gay marriage and abortion will blow back on them in 2018, aside from the headache of the GOP primary challenges his win could spark.
It happened to Republicans in 2012 and cost them some winnable Senate seats.
That year, after the GOP Senate nominee in Missouri, Todd Akin, made controversial comments about rape, candidates and party officials across the country were hounded with questions about the issue and repeatedly asked whether they agreed with Akin and supported his campaign.
“Getting thrown off the supreme court of your state twice, I don’t think, is a credential that commends you for membership in the United States Senate,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, said.
Cornyn was chairman of the NRSC, the Senate GOP campaign arm, in 2012, and has firsthand experience with the problems sharp-tongued politicians like Moore can cause other Republicans.
