Iraq vs. Afghanistan

If you look at the graphs posted by Roggio below, it’s obvious that the every metric for gaging progress in Iraq is going in the right direction–attacks are down, American and Iraqi casualties are down, car bombs are down, and IEDs have become nonexistent in some parts of the country. General Odierno says that Iraq is at its quietest since 2004, but there’s one major difference:

“I feel we are back in ’03 and early ’04. Frankly I was here then, and the environment is about the same in terms of security in my opinion,” he said. “What is different from then is that the Iraqi security forces are significantly more mature.”

Meanwhile, al Qaeda has stooped to new lows in its propaganda. This from the Zawahiri tape:

The mujahedeen “must throw out the bribe-taking collaborators from among their ranks, those who sold out their faith and fight under the banner of the cross. They must expose them to the Muslim world,” al- Zawahri said. “Those who support the Americans are despicable scum,” he said. “The tribe or clan that does not cleanse itself of traitors and apostates will be remembered in history for generations as one of the collaborators and traitors,” he warned. “But any clan or tribe that defends Islam and crushes traitors … will be remembered in Arab history with pride and glory.”

In just one year, al Qaeda has gone from making threats against American forces and the Iraqi government to making threats against the Sunni tribes of Iraq–which, if al Qaeda is to have any success, must be the the group’s base of support. But the leaders of those tribes are not going to purge their ranks of “collaborators and traitors,” which makes such rhetoric further reinforcement for the status quo–collaboration with U.S. forces and the Iraqi government against al Qaeda. Still, there is a real threat that the U.S. military will become a victim of its own success. As the Washington Post reports, “Bush faces pressure to shift war priorities”:

With violence on the decline in Iraq but on the upswing in Afghanistan, President Bush is facing new pressure from the U.S. military to accelerate a troop drawdown in Iraq and bulk up force levels in Afghanistan, according to senior U.S. officials.

There’s no doubt that Afghanistan has become, in many ways, a more problematic conflict than the war in Iraq. The Taliban has been resurgent for some time, and casualties are on the increase while Coalition partners, who make a far greater contribution in Afghanistan than in Iraq (faint praise), are going wobbly. But the war in Afghanistan is not in any danger of spiraling out of control–it’s a slow-motion disaster, and there’s still plenty of time left to make the necessary adjustments and regain the initiative. In Iraq, on the other hand, violence is down and al Qaeda is on the run. Shifting the focus to Afghanistan now would only repeat the mistakes of the past. Better to finish what’s been started in Iraq, and then deal with the Afghan problem.

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