For a while, it looked as if Republican senator David Vitter had a better-than-good shot at winning the 2015 governor’s race in Louisiana. For several months since last December, Vitter had led in the polls against the Democrat and two Republicans also running in the state’s open primary, which is Saturday.
But something happened over the summer. Vitter began to lose ground, and eventually his lead over Democrat John Bel Edwards. The latest tracking poll from Market Research Insight shows Edwards leading with 35 percent while the 3 Republicans—Vitter, public service commissioner Scott Angelle, and lieutenant governor Jay Dardenne—at 18 percent, 16 percent, and 16 percent, respectively. All 3 Republicans are within the margin of error of each other, and about 13 percent say they remain undecided.
What happened to Vitter? There’s a clue in MRI’s favorability ratings. Angelle, Dardenne, and Edwards are all above water in favorability, with Dardenne even having a 50 percent favorability rating. But Vitter’s rating is slightly negative, with 39 percent having a favorable opinion and 40 percent unfavorable.
Dardenne, who spoke to THE WEEKLY STANDARD by phone on Friday, says the unfavorable view of Vitter comes from “the negativity of his campaign” as well as his unwillingness to appear in recent debates. “His refusal to address the issue out there has resulted in a total collapse of where he is relative to where he was,” Dardenne said.
What issue is that? “You know what I’m talking about,” Dardenne responded. “I’m talking about the prostitution scandal.”
In 2007, the conviction of the woman known as the “D.C. Madam” revealed Vitter’s phone number on the records of the escort company known to be engaged in prostitution services. Vitter, a married man, has never admitted to seeing prostitutes but did ask for “forgiveness” from the public for a “very serious sin” that he did not spell out.
Rumors also abound that Vitter had visited prostitutes in New Orleans, which he has denied, and those stories resurfaced after an independent journalist posted an interview online with a former prostitute who claims to have had Vitter as a client from 1998 to 2000. The woman, Wendy Ellis, also claims she had a child by Vitter.
This renewed focus has rocked the campaign in recent weeks. The accusations have made their way into TV ads against Vitter, and one local news reporter unsuccessfully asked Vitter last month about the claims. The repoter says he was fired from the station shortly after his question because the Vitter campaign threatened to pull ads from the station. The campaign has said no one from the campaign called the station to threaten to pull ads.
Angelle made mention of the latest allegation at the final debate before Saturday’s primary on Wednesday. “There is a shadow that has been cast over Sen. Vitter, a shadow that if it continues, will follow Louisiana,” the Republican said, according to the Advocate of Baton Rouge. “When that follows Louisiana, it hurts our ability to create jobs. It hurts our ability to grow our economy. We can’t have a cavalier attitude about this. I understand a serious sin. It is now perhaps a lifestyle that we need to examine, a lifestyle that Louisiana cannot afford.” Both Angelle and Dardenne told reporters after the debate that voters should watch the video interviews.
Vitter did not attend the debate, and a spokesman for his campaign told the Advocate that “desperate candidates in last place do desperate things.”
Dardenne tells TWS that Vitter’s unwillingness to address these accusations while slinging his own at his opponents is hurting the Republican senator. One Vitter campaign ad says Dardenne went on a lavish “birthday bash” to Europe with his wife on the taxpayer’s dime. Dardenne, who as lieutenant governor also oversees the state’s tourism efforts, says he paid for his wife’s travel and that the trip was part of an effort to increase international tourism to Louisiana.
But it’s Vitter’s attacks while the prostitution charges loom over him, Dardenne says, that are making Louisana voters take a second look at the one-time leading candidate. “People are basically upset with the hypocrisy,” says Dardenne.
Nevertheless, Vitter maintains a small advantage over the other Republicans and is best poised to make it into the runoff election against the Democrat, Edwards. And that, it looks like, would be bad news for Louisiana Republicans. According to a recent KPLC-TV poll of most likely voters, in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Vitter and Edwards, Edwards leads 52 percent to 33 percent.
If Vitter does limp to the runoff and those numbers hold, Republicans would lose the governor’s mansion after two terms under outgoing governor Bobby Jindal. Dardenne, for his part, says his better favorability ratings and his record of winning four statewide elections give him a better shot against Edwards. Edging out the better-funded Vitter campaign as well as Angelle (who has ties to Jindal’s political operation) won’t be easy. But Dardenne sounds confident that Vitter’s problems will undo him in either the primary or the runoff.
“David Vitter is dropping like a rock,” he says.
