Could Stimulus Delayed be Stimulus Defeated?

While the president last night touted the agreement among the White House and House leaders (both Republican and Democrat) on the framework of a stimulus package to be enacted quickly, it looks like the agreement may be delayed. That’s because Senate Democrats are developing their own version:

Baucus’ $156 billion proposal would extend unemployment insurance for 13 more weeks beyond the usual 26 weeks. Workers in states with unemployment rates above 6 percent would receive an extra 13 weeks of benefits, for a total of up to 52 weeks… Baucus’ plan would expand proposed payments to senior citizens, who would qualify based on their Social Security income. Some might not qualify under the House plan because they did not work in 2007 or did not pay income taxes… Senators have suggested potential changes, including more-generous food-stamp payments, money for road resurfacing, energy tax breaks, low-income heating assistance and aid to states.

There seems ample room to improve the ‘consensus’ stimulus package that the House is preparing to pass. But it’s not clear that the Baucus/Senate Democrat plan will be much more effective at boosting economic growth. Extending unemployment benefits and boosting home-heating aid are nice ideas, but they’re unlikely to generate new jobs. And when a bill like this one is delayed, it increases the chances of collapsing under its own weight — as happened to president Clinton’s 1993 stimulus package.

Washington being what it is, there are plenty of lobbyists who have been encouraged by the Senate’s delay to push their own pet projects. And in general, those ideas are also unlikely to do anything to get the economy moving:

Many welcomed the news last week that the Senate intends to take a closer look at the deal brokered by the House and Bush administration. Slowing the process down allows a wide range of interest groups – from meatpackers to renewable-energy producers to financiers – more time to get in on what is now a $150 billion package… Then there’s the push by general contractors for more spending on public works projects. The goal has attracted passionate Senate backers on both sides of the aisle even though economists say it isn’t likely to spur the economy in the short run… Gregory Wetstone, a lobbyist for the wind energy industry, is pushing for the extension of a production tax credit that was dropped from the energy bill. With only one year left before it expires, the industry sees the credit as a top priority.

Legislators have probably gone too far out on a limb with the promise of one-time tax rebates to back down now. If the Senate’s broad bill takes more than a few weeks, leaders will probably move a narrow bill centered on the rebates. However, Congressional leaders have already been burned several times in the current Congress by their inability to muster votes for legislation that had previously seemed likely to pass easily. Immigration reform and FISA are just two examples of areas where an activist minority proved able to derail bills they opposed. Could the current delay put leaders in the same position a month from now?

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