When Allen West, the charismatic chairman of the Texas Republican Party, tried to leverage his popularity with grassroots conservatives to strong-arm the GOP’s choice for state House speaker, party leaders ignored him.
The situation in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott and other top Republicans rejected West’s demands to replace state Rep. Dade Phelan as speaker-designate, has a direct bearing on the future of the GOP nationally. Congressional Republicans are grappling with President Trump’s apparent plans to maintain his grip on the party after leaving the White House, aided by strong support from base voters. They are trying to determine how much fealty is prudent, or necessary, to pay.
“It’s very situational,” said Ron Bonjean, a Republican operative in Washington and former congressional leadership aide. “If Republican voters are still listening to Trump and take his words as gospel, and he is heavily involved in the daily political lives of Republicans, then it’s going to remain a challenge for them to get out from under his shadow.”
West, who is black, was elected Texas GOP chairman over the summer. The conservative media darling, military combat veteran, and former Florida congressman defeated low-profile but competent incumbent James Dickey on the strength of votes from committed party activists who prefer their new chairman’s combative style. Earlier this month, West took the unusual step of intervening in internal party matters in Austin by announcing the state GOP’s opposition to Phelan.
West said in an email posted to the state GOP’s website that his resistance stems from the fact that Phelan enjoys Democratic support for his speakership, a dynamic that would be unusual in Washington but is common in the Texas Legislature. “The Republican Party of Texas will not support, nor accept, state Rep. Dade Phelan as speaker of the Texas House,” West said. “Texas does not need a Republican political traitor.”
West is not backing down, as he made clear in a radio interview on Friday, despite being completely dismissed by Texas’s top elected Republicans. “Congratulations to my friend, Dade Phelan,” said Abbott, who is running for reelection in 2022 and is considered a possible candidate for president in 2024. “A strong conservative, Dade has a proven track record of fighting for the lives and livelihoods of all Texans.”
Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who cruised to reelection on Nov. 3, retweeted Abbot’s statement. Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican consultant in Texas, described West as a paper tiger who doesn’t speak for the constituency he might imagine. “This is another example of someone standing on the sidelines, throwing bombs,” he said, “trying to have influence and power.” The same cannot be said about Trump, who carries weight with Republican voters despite losing reelection to President-elect Joe Biden.
That has put congressional Republicans in a tough spot.
If they cross Trump in the short term, they risk alienating the GOP base ahead of two Jan. 5 runoff elections in Georgia that will decide control of the Senate. Cross Trump in the long term, and Republicans worry the conservative grassroots will abandon them in the 2022 midterm elections. That dynamic has been most evident in the refusal of Republicans in Congress to acknowledge Biden as the winner of the presidential election publicly, an outcome most recognize privately.
Party insiders say congressional Republicans could begin to exert some independence from Trump after the Georgia runoffs. The GOP needs to win just one of them to maintain Senate control. “Once we get past that mile marker, there might be a shift,” a Republican lobbyist said. The challenge could be more difficult for Republicans in the Senate than in the House.
In the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California leads an emboldened caucus. House Republicans could end up just four or five seats from the majority by the time all of the races are called. But enforcing unity and voting “no” on Democratic legislation is an easy task with Democrats still ruling the chamber and responsible for whipping 218 floor votes to pass legislation.
In the majority, Senate Republicans are charged with confirming Biden’s nominations to serve in the executive branch and the judiciary. And, even if Senate Republicans oppose the majority of the president-elect’s policy agenda, they will presumably have to compromise on legislation to fund the government, the Pentagon, and coronavirus relief. That could be a difficult task if Trump is barking counterorders from the sidelines.
“I hope that the more established Republicans in this town learned the right lessons from the Tea Party period,” a Republican close to Trump said, referring to Barack Obama’s presidency. “We want our base to go into 2022 hot and united. We don’t want to go into 2022 with a divided base and a civil war.”
