With Monday marking the last day of the third fundraising quarter of the year, July through September, Democratic presidential campaigns will soon reveal how much money they raised. The individual contribution hauls can reveal new dynamics about the state of the race. Here are five things to watch:
1. Cory Booker’s $1.7 million-or-drop-out ultimatum
The New Jersey senator’s campaign revealed last in a memo last weekend that if it does not raise $1.7 million by the end of the quarter, Booker does not think he will have the resources needed to expand his operation into a competitive campaign with a shot at winning the nomination and will drop out.
He is making progress toward that goal, having raised nearly $1.25 million at the end on Thursday, according to his campaign.
Even if Booker meets his goal, he could still have trouble scaling his operation to catch up to top-tier competitors. Booker raised almost $4.5 million in the last quarter, the sixth-largest haul of the Democratic presidential candidates. But he was still far behind California Sen. Kamala Harris, who was in fifth place with $11.8 million, and far behind top-raiser Pete Buttigieg’s $24.9 million in individual donations.
2. Joe Biden’s large-donor strategy
As modern campaigns start to focus more on online fundraising and large numbers of individual donations, the former vice president has maintained a strategy of soliciting high-dollar donations at private fundraisers.
Aside from turning off voters who dislike the appearance of rich donors crowning a presidential candidate, the focus on high-dollar donors is a risk in part because those who give the maximum contribution cannot provide support later in the primary cycle.
Biden raised a record $6.3 million in the first 24 hours after launching his campaign in late April, providing a boost to his nearly $22 million second-quarter haul. If he raised less than $22 million, it will play into a narrative about his campaign flailing as Warren picks up momentum.
3. Elizabeth Warren matching polling momentum
After a summer of steadily rising in the polls and capturing support from some voters who supported Sanders in 2016, Warren has emerged as a formidable challenger to Biden and a more palatable candidate than Sanders. Warren surpassed Biden in a handful of recent state and national polls.
A top-tier campaign needs money, though, and the question is whether Warren’s donations match her momentum in polling.
Warren raised $19.2 million in the second quarter, the third-highest in individual contributions and close behind Biden’s nearly $22 million.
Warren has rejected high-dollar fundraisers, so her fundraising haul could be a measure of her grassroots support. Instead of taking time out of her schedule to call people likely to give a maximum donation as many candidates do, she calls low-dollar contributors and sometimes shares the conversations on social media.
4. Does Beto bounce back?
Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke made a splash when he announced his candidacy for president on the heels of his unsuccessful, but highly-publicized, 2018 Senate bid. He brought in $6.1 million in the first 24 hours following his campaign launch in March, a then-record before Biden surpassed it in late April.
But in the second quarter of the year, O’Rourke’s fundraising, like his poll numbers, dropped off significantly. He raised just $3.6 million from April through June.
In recent months, though, O’Rourke has loosened his campaign tone, freely dropping profanities on the campaign trail and asserting that Trump is a white supremacist. After an August mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, that killed 22 people, O’Rourke made confiscation of military-style rifles a cornerstone of his campaign message. “Hell yes, we will take your AR-15, your AK-47,” he said during the September debate.
O’Rourke’s third-quarter fundraising haul could indicate whether his new message is resonating with Democrats.
5. Do those in the bottom tier have the funds to keep campaigning?
Several low-polling, low-fundraising candidates dropped out during the third quarter: former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. But other candidates remain in the race despite being shut out from Democratic primary debates.
If these campaigns don’t raise enough money to pay for their next plane ticket to an important candidate event or pay staff, they may be forced to officially end their presidential bids. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, for instance, raised less than $900,000 in the second quarter. Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney raised less than $300,000 but has been self-financing his run with personal loans to his campaign.
