Tonight’s bluegrass Republican showdown might be closer than you think

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It’s being billed as a key test of the Tea Party movement’s insurrection against the GOP Establishment. And, the principals couldn’t be more colorfully cast. Today Kentucky U.S. Senate Republican primary pits Rand Paul, son and political acolyte of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), the “libertarian-ish” surprise sensation of Election 2008, against the Secretary of the Bluegrass State, Trey Grayson, dutiful Kentucky Grand Old Party stalwart, with U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in his corner. Grayson may have stumbled as a candidate, and polls show him trailing Paul by double digits, but it would be foolish to rule out McConnell pulling his candidate out of the fire. McConnell may be ill at ease stoking the passions of a cantankerous crowd, but he is a masterful behind the scenes political tactician, who knows how to leverage the intricate rules of the game to his advantage.

It was Rand Paul’s fundraising prowess that made election observers, who had dismissed his bid as a lark, to start to think he had a shot. Rand Paul reaped thousands of small donations quickly by appealing to the huge email list that Ron Paul had amassed on his quixotic presidential run. The bulk of those donors came from outside Kentucky. But in contrast to Ron’s run that rented out huge halls for Dr. Paul to hold forth to the faithful – many of whom couldn’t vote for him, Rand Paul’s operatives assured this blogger that his funds would be spent for the “stuff” of a modern U.S. Senate campaign: targeting voters, winning them over and getting them to the polls.

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