A look at the Republican presidential candidates ahead of the FOX News/Washington Examiner debate in Ames Iowa:
He’s still the man to beat, and the man President Obama fears enough to leak out an early, vaguely anti-Mormon campaign strategy. So far, Romney has not won the hearts of conservatives, but he has done as well as one could expect in rebutting criticism of the Massachusetts health care law — “Obamneycare.” With a better social-fiscal fusion candidate like Rick Perry on the horizon – another governor with a more conservative record — Romney could face some serious trouble. Unlike Michele Bachmann, Perry can probably compete in both Iowa and New Hampshire — Romney may be forced to change his strategy and compete for real in Iowa instead of picking New Hampshire as his hill to die on.
That wild-eyed Newsweek cover? It can only help her with her target demographic. Even better, and unlike Sarah Palin, Bachmann knows that she will always be more of a martyr if she doesn’t try to make one of herself. Our own Byron York reports on how her personal skills with Iowa voters can be nearly Clinton-esque — something most observers haven’t accounted for. This has paid dividends as she climbs in the Iowa polls. Another strong debate performance, followed up by a top finish in the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, and she could force New Hampshire voters to deny her the nomination.
The man who wasn’t there. By avoiding the debate and making no effort at the straw poll, the Texas governor in his third full term seemingly towers over both contests. Perry’s greatest assets are Texas’ enviable economic record, his stature as a sitting governor, and frankly, the fact that most Republicans don’t know enough about him to dislike him, if there is indeed anything they will dislike. As long as he is only a potential candidate, Perry avoids all harshly negative judgments on his candidacy. He doesn’t have to make any ridiculous statements, dirty his hands with attacks against other candidates, or take barbs from them. He is formidable, but only in theory. Just like Fred Thompson in 2008. Perry has an opportunity, but the ball is very much in his court.
Straw polls are one part organization and one part grass-roots enthusiasm. Nobody beats Paul on this latter count. It is hard to see any path by which Paul actually gets the nomination, but a strong showing at Ames will keep him relevant longer. Paul failed to meet his targets in Iowa last time around, finishing a disappointing fifth place in both the Straw Poll the caucuses – in the latter, even behind John McCain, who wasn’t competing there. His libertarian message makes him an unconventional Iowa candidate, but with all others competing for the conventional Evangelical caucus-goer, and a smarter campaign than the one he ran four years ago, he hopes to finish third. That would keep him relevant much longer.
Iowa is a must-win for Pawlenty, so it has to be difficult for him to find himself behind and taken less seriously than Ron Paul. His shelf life ends with a poor Straw Poll showing on Saturday. The only thing that can save him now is an organizational miracle. Stranger things have happened in Iowa, but usually for Democrats.
He’s a former Republican governor with a good record, but conservatives just don’t like Jon Huntsman. Blame his love letters to President Obama if you like, or the fact that he seems to be the media’s favorite Republican. The Ames debate will be Huntsman’s first as a candidate, so he has a chance to put himself on the radar and pitch himself as a conservative. He may be the John McCain of this cycle. Like John McCain, Huntsman is going nowhere in Iowa. Like John McCain, he has bet everything on New Hampshire. Like John McCain, he suffers from early campaign infighting. He even has John McCain’s old advisors. His biggest problem? He is too much like John McCain without being John McCain.
Cain has always been more than a wealthy vanity candidate. But he suffers from a malady that affected many unsuccessful Tea Party candidates in 2010, such as Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell. The strength of his beliefs cannot make up for his unpolished, amateur media appearances, nor for his propensity to opine on matters he clearly hasn’t studied. His moment came after the first debate. It’s gone now.
At the beginning, his candidacy looked like a lark. When his staff resigned en masse, it began to resemble a train wreck. Now it looks like that awkward office party where the boss starts telling an off-color joke and no one has the courage to tell him to shut up. Gingrich fascinates conservatives with the clarity of his logic and his ability to offer succinct explanations and policy ideas. He is far less capable when it comes to campaigning for office, something he hasn’t done in over a decade and hasn’t done in earnest for even longer. His denunciation of Paul Ryan’s budget plan was an awkward political attempt to differentiate himself, and he only compounded it by trying to say that he didn’t say what he said. Gingrich is probably too stubborn to pull the emergency brake before the Iowa caucuses.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is on a quaint family vacation in Iowa. He even gets to spend an evening on stage tomorrow night with real presidential candidates. It should be a good time for everyone.
The Field
Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, and Thad McCotter. Two former governors and a sitting congressmen, these candidates aren’t nobodies, but their poll numbers are dismal — which is part of why they’re not in the debate.
