Republicans on Wednesday saw trouble for their congressional majorities in the results of an unexpectedly competitive special election to fill a conservative Kansas House seat.
The GOP still won, with Ron Estes defeating Democrat James Thompson by 8.3 percentage points. But worrisome was the margin. President Trump won the district by 27 points in November.
The finish in central Kansas provided fresh evidence of GOP complacency, versus an energized Democratic electorate, especially in the suburbs of the 4th district, just one week before another special House election, in Georgia.
In suburban Atlanta, voters will head to the polls to fill a vacant seat that Republicans have held for decades but that Trump won by only 1.5 points.
“Democrats are absolutely motivated. There’s simply no doubt about that. Republicans can’t take anything for granted,” a Republican operative who was active in the Kansas race said, on condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly.
Republicans choosing to downplay the Kansas contest are resting their argument not on the results, but the timing.
“If this special happened in summer 2018, I would be singing a different tune,” said a second GOP operative who worked the Kansas contest.
Republican insiders were reassured that the 2018 elections are still 19 months away. They say it was too early to draw conclusions from irregularly scheduled election influenced by complicating factors.
Turnout in specials trends lower than in general elections; Estes by all accounts was underwhelming and ran a lackluster campaign; and Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is among the most unpopular chief executives in the country.
Special elections are imperfect weather vanes.
At times, they forecast coming general election disaster for the party that underperforms, as Republicans did in multiple special House contests in the 2006 and 2008 election cycles. But on other occasions, such as GOP performance in specials in the 2010 cycle, the results are harbingers.
“The predictive value of special election results is greater after we know the results of the next, regularly scheduled elections,” writes nonpartisan elections analyst Nathan Gonzales for Inside Elections, where he is editor and publisher.
Added Gonzales, in an after-action post on the Kansas special:
“Whether it’s Democrat Paul Hackett’s loss in 2005 in Ohio (before Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006) or Democrat Mark Critz’s win in Pennsylvania in 2010 (before Democrats lost 63 seats six months later) it’s often hard to know how much or little to make of special election results until we know the fuller picture and which aspects of the race foreshadowed the future and which factors were unique to the special election.”
House Republicans are defending 23 seats that Hillary Clinton won last year. Their 24-seat majority could rest on motivating voters in suburban districts that lean Republican, or alternate support for both parties, who are disinclined to support Trump.
Trump’s presidency is still short of the 100-day mark. But major campaign promises made by the president and Republicans in Congress are already on the rocks, including repealing and replacing Obamacare and tax reform.
If the president’s approval ratings are still low a year from now, and Republicans have few legislative achievements to show for the party’s full control of Washington, GOP turnout could be depressed.
Combined with Democrats who are supercharged to place a check on Trump, several Republican seats could be imperiled. Democrats like the signs they’re seeing so far.
“Kansas’ 4th Congressional District is ruby red and should never have been on the table — this massive swing from the 2016 presidential results should set off alarm bells for House Republicans,” said Meredith Kelly, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. ”
In Georgia’s 6th district, Republicans aren’t taking any chances, spending millions to hold the seat in an April 18 special election where the Democratic nominee will likely raise more than $10 million.
