President Trump’s brief tenure in the White House hasn’t done much to increase his dismal approval ratings. While Trump managed to win in November despite low poll numbers, House Republicans in 2018 may not be as lucky.
More than a year and a half away, the midterm elections could significantly weaken the GOP House majority or even result in a Democratic takeover.
Many believe Trump’s performance will help seal the GOP’s fate.
“History says Republicans should get beaten badly in 2018 because the president is not popular, Congress is not popular, and history says, that is what happens in those situations,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, told the Washington Examiner.
Neither Trump nor the Republican-led House and Senate are faring well in the polls. A recent Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll showed 56 percent of U.S. voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance. The results are more dismal for Congress, which plummeted to a 20 percent approval rating in an April Gallup poll.
Brown and other pollsters argue it is too far out to use current polling to assess the GOP’s election prospects for November 2018.
But there is evidence Trump’s low approval ratings may already be threatening the size of the House Republican majority, which stands now at 23 seats.
A race to fill the Georgia seat left vacant by Republican Tom Price when he took over as Health and Human Services secretary was supposed to be a sure thing for the GOP.
Instead, Democrat Jon Ossoff took 48 percent of the vote over a pack of four GOP candidates in a race that is now headed to a June 20 runoff.
Ossoff has seized on the liberal left’s anger at the new president with a “Make Trump furious campaign.” Ossoff has raised more than $8 million, and Democrats hope the enthusiasm for their party candidate can become a template for 2018.
In Kansas, a once-dependable GOP seat suddenly turned competitive this month in the race to fill the vacancy left by Republican Mike Pompeo, who resigned from the seat to become CIA director.
Republican Ron Estes pulled off a victory, but the race was close enough for Republican heavyweights to get involved, including Trump; Vice President Mike Pence, who recorded calls on behalf of Estes; and Speaker Paul Ryan, who sent out a fundraising email.
Estes won by seven points. In contrast, Pompeo was re-elected to the seat by 27 points in November.
It’s not clear whether Kansas or Georgia serves as a referendum on Trump or what it will mean for the House in 2018, but the trend is worrisome for the GOP.
“It certainly is evidence Republicans have a problem right now,” Nathan Gonzales, who is editor and publisher of Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president, told the Washington Examiner. “It doesn’t guarantee they will get crushed in 2018, but it’s not a good sign.”
The GOP’s real problem may be Democratic enthusiasm that has surged since Trump took office.
“The recipe for big Democratic gains in 2018 is an energized Democratic base and a depressed or apathetic Republican base,” Gonzales said. “I think that is part of what is feeding into the competitiveness of Georgia and Kansas.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political report has rated 36 House GOP seats as “competitive” in the next general election, although only one of those, the seat held by Rep. Darrell Issa of California, is considered a toss-up and 26 GOP-held seats are considered “likely” to stay Republican.
The Democrats appear less vulnerable, with two seats rated as toss-ups and only 19 other competitive races.
David Wasserman last month called Trump’s election “probably the best thing to happen to Democrats’ chances of retaking the House majority in 2018” and said Trump’s “rocky start has the out party energized.”
But Wasserman warned that the GOP holds a technical advantage.
“To pick up 24 seats, Democrats will need to overcome their voters’ urban concentration and GOP-drawn maps.”
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said Trump’s performance may not doom the GOP because of its large margin. “Odds are their margin will just shrink rather than disappear,” Sabato told the Washington Examiner.
Among the most competitive races is the seat held by Democrat Jacky Rosen in Nevada’s 3rd District.
Rosen won by about 1 percent and is the first Democrat to serve in the seat in six years.
Democrats may hang onto the seat, thanks to Trump, Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston told the Washington Examiner.
“If Trump’s numbers remain in their current putrid state, Rosen will be the favorite,” Ralston said. “Of course, it all depends on the candidate the Republicans find.”
