Betting odds for the presidential candidate to win have again shifted in Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s favor as the first debate approaches, but betting market analysts say that bettors view the race as a virtual “coin toss” that could quickly see President Trump regain the lead.
By early September, Trump had slashed Biden’s massive lead to within a fraction of a point, and analysts say bettors think he could do it again. On Aug. 1, Biden was favored to win by a probability of +24.6 percentage points, according to a RealClearPolitics betting odds average, which includes data from Betfair, Smarkets, and other election betting markets. Biden had been the front-runner since May.
As of Friday, bettors on Smarkets gave Biden a 55.56% chance of winning on Election Day versus Trump’s 43.48%. And similarly, Election Betting Odds shows Biden’s odds increasing by 0.5% in the last day to 53.8%, with Trump’s falling by 0.8% over the same period to 43.3%.
“Polls show Biden with big leads, but the people betting on the election say it’s closer than it looks,” said Maxim Lott, who runs Election Betting Odds, which includes probability data from election betting sites Betfair and PredictIt. “They give Trump a 43% chance of winning. That’s nearly a coin toss.”
Betfair‘s probability of a Biden victory is at 53%, with Trump at 46%. A RealClearPolitics betting odds average, which includes data from Betfair, Smarkets, and other election betting markets, gives Biden a 6.6 percentage point lead over Trump, 52.9% to 46.3%.
“The bettors seem to be banking on Trump changing up the race somehow, perhaps in the upcoming debates,” Lott said. “They may also be concerned about the accuracy of battleground state polls, which significantly underestimated Trump in 2016.”
A Real Clear Politics average of battleground state polls that includes Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona, holds Biden ahead of Trump by 3.9 percentage points at 48.7% to 44.8%.
Lott argues that while bettors can make mistakes, “their track record shows they are the single best predictor to look at — because they have their own money on the line.”
And with less than 50 days to go until Nov. 3, others agree.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said in a statement that while Biden still holds a narrow lead over Trump, “as we near the first of three Presidential debates, things could change very quickly.”
“Despite the Democrat being the long-term favorite, it would be unwise to rule out Trump come November, particularly with what happened in 2016, when he looked to have very little chance of being elected just before the debates,” he added.
“With just seven weeks to go until the election, not much separates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Smarkets,” Patrick Flynn, politics analyst for the site, said this week in a tweet. “Biden currently sits at 53% (-1 since last week) to Trump’s 46% (+2).”
The most significant bets to date have been £51,121 ($66,249) and £49,999 ($64,795) on Joe Biden, and a £50,000 ($64,800) stake on Trump, according to Betfair.
