Democrats are heavy underdogs to flip an open Ohio Senate seat even after landing their top recruit, Rep. Tim Ryan.
The 47-year-old, 10-term congressman is from the blue-collar Mahoning Valley in northeast Ohio and presents as the sort of working-stiff Democrat who can win in this generational Midwestern battleground that former President Donald Trump converted into a Republican stronghold. It’s an image that has paid dividends for liberal Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Democrats are hopeful that in Ryan, they have someone similar to throw against whomever Republicans nominate to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman.
Republican insiders concede Ryan is no slouch. He is the most formidable contender the Democrats might nominate in the GOP-trending state and will mount a strong campaign. But they are quick to argue the congressman lacks both the centrist credentials to appeal to culturally conservative voters and the intangible qualities — authenticity and familiarity — that have made Brown so durable amid the transformation of Ohio’s politics.
At least some nonpartisan analysts agree with that conclusion.
“You could argue that Brown is the Ohio Joe Manchin, the only Democrat that would win in this state,” Paul Sracic, a political scientist at Youngstown State University, explained. “He’s not Sherrod Brown.”
Trump mauled President Joe Biden in Ohio by 8.1 percentage points, solidifying Republican dominance in the state four years after thrashing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 8.1 points. That is not a trajectory that lends itself to a Democratic victory in a midterm election with Biden in the White House, said Sracic, who declared Ryan’s chances of pulling off an upset “extremely unlikely.”
“We have to assume that whoever will be the Republican nominee will be endorsed by Trump, and that will be a very powerful endorsement,” he added.
The Democrats are realistic about the challenge ahead of Ryan. But they are also optimistic, pointing to several factors in their favor, beginning with his glide path to the nomination in the Democratic primary compared to the food fight on the Republican side. At least four viable Republicans with resources were already running on the Monday Ryan announced, with a fifth, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance, expected to jump in imminently.
Ryan’s consistent skepticism of international trade, an issue on which he agrees with Trump, is another reason Democrats believe the congressman can make inroads with white working-class voters across Ohio, positioning himself to succeed where others in their party have fallen short. More than that, Democrats say Ryan has the right temperament to appeal to Ohio voters who usually feel like they have more in common, culturally, with Republicans.
“He’s got a long history of reaching out to and winning with the voters we’ve bled like crazy over the past few years,” a Democratic operative with experience running races in red states said. Added a second Democratic operative: “He’s got the right brand.”
Republicans moved quickly to undermine those strengths and put him at odds with liberal Democratic primary voters.
The congressman long ago dropped his opposition to abortion, possibly to facilitate bids for leadership roles in the House Democratic Caucus.
Expect Republicans to use that as an example of Ryan abandoning any semblance of centrism while trying to force him to answer for some politically charged proposals from some of his Democratic colleagues in Congress. They include initiatives to “defund” the police or to otherwise reduce funding for law enforcement, to “pack,” or add seats to, the Supreme Court, and to mitigate climate change aggressively via a collection of policies referred to as the Green New Deal.
“Does Tim Ryan support the hardworking Ohioans who want a Senator fighting for them? Or will he continue to march in lockstep with these radical, left-wing policies? The people of Ohio deserve answers,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Lizzie Litzow said in a statement.
Perhaps the biggest red flag for Ryan, beyond anything Republicans might accuse him of, is his electoral performance in 2020 in the 13th Congressional District, which could be a casualty of the decennial redistricting process. Ryan won by 7.6 points, a comfortable victory. But in Trumbull County, Ryan’s home county, he garnered less than 50% of the vote in a narrow loss to an underfunded Republican opponent.
