The latest poll of likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers from the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg finds Senator Ted Cruz in a smaller lead with 25 percent support to Donald Trump’s 22 percent.
Cruz is 6 points lower from the previous Register/Bloomberg poll, in December, when the Texas Republican had 31 percent support. Trump’s support, meanwhile, has not changed significantly, up just 1 percentage point from 21 percent last month.
Coming in third in the poll is Senator Marco Rubio at 12 percent, with the Florida senator up 2 points from December. Just trailing him is Ben Carson at 11 percent, down 2 points from December.
While the February 1 caucus rapidly approaches, a majority of likely caucusgoers, 56 percent, still say they could be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice. That means Cruz has a plenty high ceiling of potential support—23 percent of the poll’s sample listed him as their second choice, bringing his combined total as first or second choice to 48 percent. Trump comes in second in this metric, though just 11 percent list the reality TV star as a second choice, bringing his combined total to 33 percent.
Not far behind is Rubio with 28 percent combined total as 16 percent list him as their second choice—a higher percentage than who list him as their first choice. Support for Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, drops off on this question, with just 8 percent listing him as a second choice with a combined total of 19 percent.
The Register poll, performed by veteran pollster Ann Selzer, consistently has one of the best polling track records for races in Iowa. In 2014, for instance, Selzer’s final poll for the U.S. Senate race gave Republican Joni Ernst a seven-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley, while other pollsters found a much tighter race, some even showing Braley winning. Ernst went on to beat Braley by nine points.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of Iowa polls, the latest from the Register gives Cruz miniscule 0.5-point lead over Trump, following three other recent polls that showed Trump’s lead in the state restored.
