Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the 14-month U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is still on track, pending a critical power-sharing negotiation between the two leaders who both claim to be the president of Afghanistan.
“The Afghan government needs to organize itself and reach an agreement,” Esper said at a Brookings Institution discussion on Monday. “We need to get this process on track. That is the way forward.”
The U.S.-recognized Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and challenger Abdullah Abdullah are currently negotiating a power-sharing agreement that could restart the peace process initiated between the United States and the Taliban with an agreement inked in Dohan on Feb. 29.
Violence has only increased in the intervening months, and many commentators are beginning to question whether the Taliban are committed to peace. Esper said Monday that peace in Afghanistan would not be decided on the battlefield.
Since signing the agreement with the U.S., the Taliban have conducted more than 4,500 attacks, averaging 55 per day, according to news reports.
“This conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan government, it’s not going to be won on the battlefield. There’s not a military solution,” he said. “We have to have a political solution to this, and that’s the process that we set up.”
“We understand right now there is a possible new power-sharing agreement coming out between Abdullah and Ghani,” Esper said. “If that’s successful, then we could form an intra-Afghan negotiating team that can then sit down with the Taliban.”
Esper said there have been some prisoner exchanges “but not enough.” He also said that “there has not been a reduction in violence,” which was promised in a secret addendum to the Feb. 29 agreement.
Nonetheless, as his military commanders have underscored, the Taliban have kept a promise not to attack metropolitan areas, U.S. forces, or those of its allies. For now, that seems to be enough for Esper to keep withdrawing troops while offering counterstrikes to defend Afghan National Security Forces when necessary.
“At the end of the day, again, we want to make sure Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for terrorists,” Esper said.
Esper confirmed that in the short term, at least, the U.S. is on track to reduce forces from 12,000 to 8,600 by mid-July and still meet that objective.
“From there, we’ll make decisions that are conditions-based,” he closed.
