The Next President and the Economy

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Three days hence those Americans not too lazy, or not seriously unhappy with the choice before them, will join the 37 million who have already voted. Hillary Clinton is hoping they will have taken on board Friday’s jobs report. The economy added 161,000 jobs in October, and the reports for the past two months were revised upward by 44,000. The unemployment rate fell from 5 percent to 4.9 percent, the lowest in about 40 years. The rate including discouraged workers fell to 9.5 percent, the lowest level since April 2005. Average hourly earnings were up 2.8 percent, the largest increase since 2009.

In a normal year, such late-breaking data would have little effect. But this is no normal year. The polls show Secretary Clinton ahead in enough key states to be the person who chooses the new drapes for the White House (or re-installs the ones she chose 24 years ago if they have been archived in anticipation of her return). But there may well be a hidden army of geographically well-placed Trump supporters unwilling to reveal their preference to pollsters, just as there were Brexiteers who held their peace when confronted by pollsters. If so, Donald Trump will be deciding just how much gilt to deploy to get the White House up to his standard.

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