The great irony of the Clinton upset in New Hampshire is that none was more surprised by it than the senior Clinton staff, yet I predict thousands of trees will be chopped down to provide enough newsprint to cover all the “we knew our micro/macro turbo-targeting strategy would work the whole time” spin we are going to hear. It’s all baloney. The truth is sometimes sh*t just happens. Lots of crazy and over-thought theories will abound, each taking backwards credit for a truly amazing upset. I have a theory too. Then, below, I’ll say what I think really happened. My theory. She was behind. The polls were basically right. Then she cried. That, plus the huge screaming story in the media that if she lost New Hampshire Clinton’s campaign and career would be dead, kaputt, and over, combined to create a perfect storm of sorts among Democratic primary voters. Especially female Democratic primary voters. To vote Obama now meant more than beating Hillary in one primary. It meant ending her campaign forever. And you don’t shoot Ol’ Yeller. Especially when she’s crying. So women (in particular) swung back, the undecided broke for Clinton, and she pulled it out. Amazing. Plus Edwards stole a big chunk of non-HRC voters. I’m sure Obama is feeling the love for him today. That’s my theory. As per the “strategy” behind it all, I’d guess this: She was tired. She was sad. She was losing. She had low blood sugar. She cried a little. On television. That triggered a chain of events, all by chance and nothing else. Mark Penn is saved. Clinton lives to fight another day. Again, it’s amazing, but if people don’t know how much of history is made by chance happenings that trigger huge events in highly charged situations, well … just ask any Archduke of Serbia. Editor’s Note, 1:00 p.m.: As many perspicacious readers have pointed out, Franz Ferdinand was the Archduke of Austria, not Serbia. A Serbian nationalist assassinated Ferdinand, sparking the First World War.
