People surveyed by research firm YouGov overestimated religious, racial, and sexual minority groups within the country.
The same survey, published on Tuesday, also showed that most people underestimate religious, racial, and sexual majorities. In some cases, they misjudged by nearly 30%.
“Amercians tend to vastly overestimate the size of minority groups. This holds for sexual minorities, including the proportion of gays and lesbians (estimate: 30%, true: 3%), bisexuals (estimate: 29%, true: 4%), and people who are transgender (estimate: 21%, true: 0.6%),” YouGov reported.
“It also applies to religious minorities, such as Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%).”
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“And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%), Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%).”
The Center for American Progress and PolicyLink, Ipsos, and other institutes published similar surveys.
YouGov’s survey also included the members of the minority groups and found that they mistakenly estimated demographics just as badly as those in majority groups.
The research firm went on to speculate that respondents gave their answers based on their lived experiences.
“Americans: not very good at guessing millionaires, but very good at guessing hundredthousandaires,” reporter Nathan McDermott tweeted.
Americans: not very good at guessing millionaires, but very good at guessing hundredthousandaires https://t.co/QmUwYDdAvJ
— Nathan McDermott (@natemcdermott) March 16, 2022
“As a child in the preinternet age i remember reading a report on this problem (early 90s),” geneticist Razib Kahn tweeted. “So it’s not new and the availability of information on the internet has [not] fixed it (in some ways it has amplified i guess?)”
as a child in the preinternet age i remember reading a report on this problem (early 90s). so it’s not new and the availability of information on the internet has no fixed it (in some ways it has amplified i guess?) https://t.co/bTOfcqNiGL
— Razib ? Khan (@razibkhan) March 16, 2022
“When Al Gore vowed to raise taxes only on ‘the top 1%’ in the 2000 election,” historian Kevin Kruse wrote, “polls showed that something like 19% of Americans thought they were in the top 1% and another 20% was confident they’d be in the top 1% within five years.”
IIRC, when Al Gore vowed to raise taxes only on “the top 1%” in the 2000 election, polls showed that something like 19% of Americans thought they were in the top 1% and another 20% was confident they’d be in the top 1% within five years. https://t.co/1Wox6IvknD
— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) March 16, 2022
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True proportions for the data came from a combination of the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, YouGov internal poll results, and other polling firms.
One thousand people in the United States took the survey between Jan. 14 and 20.
