The leader of the U.S. intelligence community said Russian President Vladimir Putin likely expected a quick military victory and not the high level of resistance to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine but that the Kremlin may still “escalate” and end up “doubling down.”
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, the head of the United States’s 18 spy agencies, said during a House Intelligence Committee hearing Tuesday that the pushback from Ukraine’s armed forces, the flaws within the Russian military, the largely unified, U.S.-led NATO response, the provision of lethal aid from Europe, Western efforts to undermine Putin’s ability to mitigate stiff international sanctions, and the huge number of international companies pulling out of Russia likely combined to take the Russian leader somewhat off guard.
“Nevertheless, our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament and neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO, if it doesn’t reach a diplomatic negotiation,” Haines said. “We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this is a war he can afford to lose. But what he might be willing to accept as a victory might change over time given the significant costs he is incurring.”
The U.S. and its international allies have hammered Russia with financial sanctions and have been pouring weaponry into Ukraine to aid in its fight. Last week, the Justice Department launched the KleptoCapture task force, which is aimed at enforcing U.S. sanctions targeting the Kremlin.
“They are facing significantly more resistance from Ukrainians than they expected and encountering military shortcomings,” Haines said. “The failure to seize Kyiv and overwhelm forces has deprived Moscow of the quick military victory that probably had originally expected would prevent the United States and NATO from being able to provide meaningful military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, we assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing, which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues, and considerable logistical issues.”
Haines added: “What is unclear at this stage is whether Russia will continue to pursue a maximalist plan to capture all or most of Ukraine, which we assess would require more resources, even as the Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagements to achieve their objectives. If they pursue the maximalist plan, we judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv in the face of what we assess is likely to be a significant and persistent insurgency.”
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While Putin has been largely isolated by the West, the Pentagon says China gave him tacit approval for the invasion and has not directly condemned it yet.
CIA Director William Burns said Tuesday, “I think Putin is determined to dominate and control Ukraine, to shape its orientation.”
“This is a matter of deep personal conviction for him,” Burns said. “He has been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years. That personal ambition matters more than ever.”
Burns said Putin went to war on the basis of a number of assumptions “which led him to believe that Russia faced a favorable landscape for use of force in Ukraine.” The CIA director said those assumptions were that Ukraine was weak, that Europeans such as the French and Germans were distracted, that he had “sanctions-proofed” his economy, and that he had modernized his military to the point where defeating Ukraine would be swift.
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“He has been proven wrong on every count,” Burns said, adding, “He is likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties.”
Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier assessed with “low confidence” that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers had been killed during the Kremlin invasion so far.
Haines noted that “beyond its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow presents a serious cyber threat, a key space competitor, and one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States.”
