Barack Obama, who just months ago seemed unable to capture the Catholic vote, is running even with John McCain among the denomination’s voters, a new poll indicates.
Catholic scholars said they were not surprised to see Obama and McCain running almost even with 44 and 45 percent of the Catholic vote, respectively, according to a new poll from Time magazine.
“With the economy headed toward a recession and gas over four dollars a gallon and an unpopular war in Iraq, it is almost the perfect storm to hit the Republicans,” said Father Thomas J. Reese, a Jesuit and senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Woodstock Theological Center.
A quarter of all voters are Catholic, and in nine of the past 10 presidential elections, the winner has garnered a majority of the Catholic vote. Success among Catholics has historically also meant a good showing among white, working-class voters and Hispanics.
“The Catholics seem to have been the lodestar for five or six elections, maybe longer,” said Pepperdine University professor Douglas Kmiec, former dean of the Catholic University Law School.
In 2004, Catholics rejected one of their own, Sen. John Kerry, in favor of a second term for President Bush, 52 percent to 47 percent. But in June 2004, a Time poll found Catholics nearly evenly divided: 45 percent for Kerry, 43 percent for Bush.
Some experts believe Obama’s near replication of Kerry’s numbers early in the election cycle stems from the current nominee’s heavy use of biblical rhetoric. Others say that it’s a result of a message of social and economic equality.
Whatever reason, the success is something of a turnaround for Obama. Before the conclusion of the Democratic race, Obama trailed rival Hillary Clinton among Catholics nationally and in almost every state where they were polled.
“I think the Catholics were going for Clinton because of her economic message,” Reese said. “He’s broadening his economic message now. At the beginning of the campaign he just hit over and over again against the Iraq war.”
Obama’s economic message, which Reese said mirrors Catholic teachings, will help the Democrat win over Catholic voters who in better economic times might instead focus on abortion and other social issues that would make McCain more appealing. But up to 20 percent of Catholic voters remain undecided between Obama and McCain, and many of those voters live in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.
“They are up for grabs,” said Chris Korzen, executive director of the grassroots advocacy group Catholics United. “They don’t have a home within either party, and both campaigns are going to be doing their best to reach out to those voters.”
