The Pennsylvania Democratic Party predicted the remaining 580,000 uncounted mail-in ballots will go resoundingly for Joe Biden, projecting that the former vice president will carry the state by about 175,000 votes.
“Based on the Party distribution of the ballots cast in each county, we believe that 75% of the remaining ballots will go to Joe Biden,” state Sen. Sharif Street wrote in a statement. “We project Biden will win by about 175,000 votes.”
As Pennsylvania counties continue to count mail-in ballots, we have been monitoring the returns. Based on the reported remaining ballots, we maintain the belief that Joe Biden is on track to win Pennsylvania and the presidency.https://t.co/IfCW1zHCe3 https://t.co/qLy7tsFJ5J pic.twitter.com/vKPNRNCmDI
— Senator Sharif Street (@StreetForPA) November 5, 2020
Pennsylvania is one of the “blue wall” states that flipped for President Trump in 2016 and solidified his path to the White House, along with Michigan and Wisconsin. However, this year, both Michigan and Wisconsin were called for Biden by the Associated Press.
A Biden win in Pennsylvania would be a decisive victory in an election that has come to rely on razor-thin margins. Without the Keystone State, Biden’s most likely path to the White House relies on taking Arizona and Nevada, garnering exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
On election night, Trump had a massive 600,000-vote lead on the former vice president. However, in Pennsylvania, counties are not allowed to begin counting mail-in ballots until after polls close. Limited resources and volunteers amid the coronavirus pandemic prompted at least seven counties to hold off on counting any mail-in ballots until Wednesday.
With each batch of mail-in ballots reported, Trump’s lead over Biden has gotten smaller. With 1 million ballots still uncounted by Wednesday afternoon, Biden already cut into Trump’s margin by almost 200,000 votes, according to data from Pennsylvania’s Board of Elections.
With just over 1 million mail-in ballots still not reported, Biden has chipped away at Trump’s massive 600K+ lead to a now slightly-less-gargantuan 440K+ lead. That trend will likely continue, but it’s unclear how much gas Biden has left in the tank. pic.twitter.com/hT0BxDGnvT
— Tyler Van Dyke (@TVD_DC) November 4, 2020
Three-quarters of all remaining mail-in ballots is an ambitious projection. Statewide, roughly 65% of all mail-in ballots were sent by Democratic voters to Republicans’ 24%. Still, the vast majority of uncounted ballots are in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, Philadelphia, and the surrounding suburban counties, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said it’s likely a winner could be announced sometime Thursday. Regardless of who pulls ahead — or stays ahead — the margin of victory needs to be decisive. Pennsylvania will automatically conduct a recount if the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote.
Alright, PA Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar says it’s likely we could know by TODAY the winner in the state of PA. The outstanding 550K +/- votes are being counted today.
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) November 5, 2020
The Trump campaign has already announced a flurry of lawsuits in battleground states regarding recounts and stopping vote counts.
In Pennsylvania, Trump won a lawsuit granting the president’s team closer access to the ballot-counting process. His campaign is also contesting Pennsylvania rules that allow for late-arriving mail-in ballots to be counted if they arrive by Friday and were postmarked on or before Election Day. The campaign is also taking legal action to throw out votes that it claims were not accompanied by appropriate voter identification, as it claims is required under federal law.
The Washington Examiner reached out to Street for further comment.
