A news release issued Monday announced a press conference set for Tuesday morning with Republican Ward 3 D.C. Council candidate Dave Hedgepeth set “to make announcement on (the) mayor’s race.” This Local Opinion Zone blogger jaunted down to the Wilson Building to have his expectation confirmed: Hedgepeth was endorsing the District’s incumbent, and Democratic, Mayor Adrian Fenty for reelection.
This “major announcement” – as billed in the email release’s subject line – enshrouded in secrecy, failed to startle in its substance, but did raise eyebrows for the media attention that the Hedgepeth campaign’s managed to garner, even with an apparently clumsy leaking pf the news the day before. As Washington CityPaper’s “Loose Lips” columnist Alan Suderman blogged pithily: “News Conference Fail; Publicity Win.”
(Hedgepeth’s machinations may have inadvertently put his campaign on the wrong side of Suderman’s predecessor, WaPo blogger Mike DeBonis, who tweeted not once, but twice, how irked he found the fumbling.)
The Fenty campaign didn’t bother to send a representative to “accept” Hedgepeth’s expected endorsement, and the event wrapped up quickly.
Hedgepeth’s follow-up release featured an awkward subtitle – “Cheh is not Pro-Rhee Enough” – fitting for the candidate’s somewhat strained message. D.C. Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee may be controversial District-wide, but she enjoys sky high approval ratings among white voters, like the overwhelming majority of the folks who will go to the polls in Ward 3.
Hedgepeth is trying to portray his opponent, incumbent Ward 3’s incumbent Democratic Council Member Mary Cheh, as not entirely in the embattled Rhee’s corner by drawing attention to the fact that the council member elected from a ward full of Fenty fans remains publicly mum on whom she favors in next month’s mayoral primary. Since Fenty has appointed and stands behind Rhee, her “refusal” – Hedgepeth’s wording – to endorse Fenty, who also remains popular in Ward 3, betrays lack of resolve for Rhee.
In follow up questioning by this blogger, Hedgepeth reiterated his angle on the incumbent: Cheh is “strangely silent on the issue of who next mayor will be.” Hedgepeth contrasts himself to Cheh’s supposed indecision: “Ward 3 needs a representative who will let them know where they stand” on “major issues like this.” So, that’s why he called this press conference to put himself on the record.
Hedgepeth’s “stunt” – in “Loose Lip’s” estimation – did prod Cheh to dismiss his endorsement just snidely enough (to both DeBonis and the Washington Examiner’s Freeman Klopott) to let the Republican underdog try to spin it that the incumbent Democrat might be starting to take his challenge seriously. (A more plausible source of her snide may be the council member’s annoyance at having to take time out of her schedule to respond to this line of inquiry.)
But, “Cheh, it should be noted, has generally been a supporter of Rhee,” DeBonis reminds us. There is more substance behind Hedgepeth’s insinuation that Cheh may not be behind Fenty’s reelection bid.
Cheh has been an outspoken critic of other figures in the Fenty administration, if not too harsh on Rhee, and has been perceived to be encouraging of a Gray bid, if just behind the scenes, as far back as when the council chair was dithering over whether to challenge the mayor.
Ward 3’s Gray partisans have been trying to tie their man to the popular Cheh, who hasn’t even attracted a gadfly challenger in her primary. This blogger heard chants of “Gray, Cheh!” as the council chairman’s demonstration made its way along MacArthur Blvd., NW during the Palisades’ fabled small town-style Fourth of July Parade.
So, has Hedgepeth factored any electoral math into his this campaign ploy?
The results of D.C. Democrats’ 2006 mayoral primary remain remarkable for being unremarkable. The spread between Fenty and then-Council Chair Linda Cropp varied little across the District’s diamond. On a casual tour of Ward 3, yard signs for Fenty are in the definite majority, but signs for Vince Gray are far from rare. It is entirely possible that Gray will meet or exceed Cropp’s take of 28% of Ward 3 Democrats in 2006. If Cheh does in fact cast her secret ballot for Vince Gray, she will join what is likely to be a not-insignificant minority of her fellow Ward 3 Democrats.
Ward 3 is home to more Republicans than any other ward and Republican candidates for Ward 3’s council seat have managed to capture between 21% and 29% in active bids since 1994, a respectable showing that exceeds Republican Presidential performance and registration figures, but lags behind total the number of Democratic voters.
How much higher than 28% Hedgepeth can climb in November is the question. While Fenty is popular in Ward 3, Gray is not reviled. Mary Cheh is arguably more popular there than Michelle Rhee.
Rhee has indicated that she will flee her post before Vince Gray has the chance to send her on her way, so Hedgepath’s strategy will be for nought if Fenty wins renomination. How many, if any, Rhee-rabid Democrats can be scared away from Cheh’s corner is impossible to estimate. Whatever that number may be, it is unlikely to be enough to get David Hedgepath past Mary Cheh alone.
