Required Reading, Part I

From the New York Times, “Not Quite Ready to Go Home” by Stephen Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack The three authors have just returned from Iraq and are soberly analyzing the progress made and the road ahead:

Violence in Iraq declined because the key combatants were either defeated in the field or agreed to cease-fires. These cease-fires were not accidents or temporary breathing spells. They were a systematic response to a new strategic landscape created by 2006’s sectarian bloodletting, the American surge last summer, the defeat of Al Qaeda’s forces in Anbar Province and the decision by battered Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias that fighting no longer served their interests. The underlying strategic rationale behind these stand-downs gives reason to believe that they are sustainable rather than ephemeral. But this does not make the peace inherently stable. Wary former combatants are constantly on the lookout for signs – real or imagined – that rivals mean to take advantage of them. The cease-fires, moreover, are extremely decentralized: more than 200 tribal and regional groups have reached individual agreements with the United States to stand down from fighting; in time, some will inevitably test the waters to see what they can get away with, or will misinterpret innocent behavior from neighbors as threatening and retaliate… It would be tragic…to allow American haste and Iraqi political opportunism to undermine a real chance for long-term stability in Iraq. Perhaps an early withdrawal would succeed, and today’s system of cease-fires would survive a rapid United States drawdown. But much important work remains to be done in Iraq. And to believe that it can be done without the longer presence of a significant number of American combat troops requires a degree of optimism that could well end up making “Mission Accomplished” look as premature today as it was in 2003.

There has been great progress in Iraq, but the situation remains fluid. One of the most dispiriting things over the past 16 months has been the Democratic party’s utter inability to process changes on the Iraqi ground. Politically and intellectually wed to a “quagmire” scenario, the Democrats have been unable to move on (to coin a phrase). Barack Obama hasn’t been the biggest offender in this regard, but merely one of many Democrats who has seemed perversely determined to become living proof of Emerson’s maxim regarding the hobgoblin of little minds. One could say “Know Hope!” and cling to the prayer that the troika of Obama, Reid and Pelosi will govern more responsibly and intelligently than they’ve indicated would be the case. Or one could recognize the reality that taking such a chance would be reckless. One other note about the O’Hanlon/Pollack/Biddle column – normally, whenever these guys surface on a well read op-ed page, the left reflectively pitches a hissy fit. Today, so far anyway, there’s been silence. Their piece hasn’t even earned a mention on the Daily Kos front page. Has the left lost all interest in Iraq? I spent the weekend on holiday in Kennebunkport. As fate would have it, the president was also in town for a family wedding. (Oddly, there were several “Welcome Mr. President!” signs and not a single “Welcome Mr. Barnett!” sign.) As is the ritual when the president visits Kennebunkport, protestors chanted their way to the massive estate at Walker’s Point to colorfully express their displeasure with all things Bush. When Bush last visited Kennebunkport roughly a year ago, over 2500 loons assembled in front of the Bush compound to chant “Jail to the Chief!” This past weekend, fewer than 50 protestors showed up to demand we get out of Iraq and “keep our hands off Iran.” If even the lunatic fringe has moved on, perhaps Barack Obama can do the same. Know hope indeed.

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