With President Joe Biden’s first year behind him and the approaching midterm elections coming into clearer focus, an NBC News poll offered a dismal outlook for Democrats while suggesting Biden’s lost political identity paves the way for a shellacking in November.
NBC’s Chuck Todd discussed the most recent poll numbers on Meet the Press on Sunday, saying that just 5% feel Biden has done better than expected, with 36% believing his tenure in office has gone worse than expected.
“[Biden] is no longer seen as competent and effective,” Todd said. “[He is] no longer seen as a good commander in chief, or perhaps most damaging, as easy-going and likable.”
Poll numbers also indicated 71% believe the country is on the wrong track, while giving Biden a 43% job approval rating. Todd added that approval of Congress is split between Republicans and Democrats but that, at this point, a four or five-point advantage is likely needed for Democrats to maintain control in Congress.
“This is only the third time in our poll’s history, over 30 years, where we have had two tracks that were that off,” Todd said. “Two of our three most important indexes are sitting in shellacking territory right now for the Democrats. This is a dangerous place for the party and the president.”
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The poll, which has looked at presidential approval ratings heading into midterm elections since 1994, has historically shown congressional elections follow the trajectory of the president’s approval numbers.
In 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018, NBC showed dismal poll numbers for the party controlling the White House as it headed into the midterm elections. In each of those years, the president’s job rating was below 50%, according to NBC, and major congressional seat losses were recorded.
One of the largest shifts came in 2010 when Democrats lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives and six in the Senate. Obama was president at the time with an NBC poll approval rating of 45% and 60% believing the country was on the wrong track.
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NBC’s poll was conducted Jan. 14-18 and reported a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
