In the wake of Fred Thompson’s disappointing finish in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, speculation centers on whether he will remain in the presidential race or drop out. To this point at least, most observers seem to agree that Thompson’s campaign has been a big help to the candidacy of John McCain — whether it was intended to be, or not. Thompson split the conservative vote in Iowa and South Carolina, apparently holding down vote totals for Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Further, Thompson’s direct attacks on Huckabee in South Carolina may have meant the margin of victory in that close primary. When Thompson announces his future plans — reportedly tomorrow morning — a big question will again be who benefits from his decision, whatever it may be. One thing seems clear: a Thompson departure from the race would likely hurt John McCain. Even if Huckabee is no longer McCain’s chief rival, Thompson’s backers seem very likely to go to McCain’s main opponents — rather than McCain himself — if Thompson gets out. At least that’s the impression one gets from an unscientific online poll conducted by Patrick Ruffini. The easiest explanation for this is the difference between the two on immigration. If Thompson does stay in the race, his support will come largely from McCain’s chief Florida rivals. That’s significant. The one wild card might be on whom Thompson focuses his attacks from here on out. Would he continue to point up Huckabee’s failings, or those of Giuliani or Romney? In a zero-sum game such as this one, Thompson might move critical votes from one candidate to another. If he stays in the race, Thompson could still heavily influence the rest of the campaign — even if he’s not the nominee himself.
