Experience and vision produce some sharp electoral fault lines this presidential election season. As we’ll no doubt see in the Ohio and Texas exit polls, Democrats like Senator Clinton’s experience but swoon over Senator Obama’s vision. These candidate characteristics cause even more dramatic differences in a potential McCain/Obama general election match up. Those who believe experience is more important choose Senator McCain over Senator Obama by a lopsided margin (65-28). But those who say the “vision thing” matters most pick Obama by a narrower 56-40 spread. And among the policy wonks who say issues matter most, the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat (Obama 48– McCain 46), according to the most recent Gallup poll. Good news for McCain? Not necessarily. Looking at the numbers a little differently, “vision voters” outnumber “experience voters” by about a two-to-one margin–a fact that should make Senator McCain a little nervous. Another recent poll (USA Today/Gallup, February 21-24) broke down the electorate into three parts: likely voters who say experience is the most important criteria, those who say vision matters most, and those who say issues top their list. The results: vision voters represent about 42 percent of the electorate, followed by 36 percent who say they vote based on issues, and 20 percent saying experience matters most. In other words, the “experience” voters who back McCain represent a smaller slice of the electorate. Experience matters, but vision motivates a lot more voters.
