American intelligence analysts expect Iranian-backed militias to continue to plot attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq, according to a prominent Republican lawmaker.
“Iran is still conducting a proxy war here, and to suggest they have no influence or limited influence in Iraq would be to ignore current intel,” Rep. Mark Meadows, a North Carolina Republican who is close to President Trump, told the Washington Examiner. “The instability within the region makes it highly probable that we’ll see some type of rogue militia have some kind of influence in Iraq.”
That assessment could suggest a return to the pattern of Iranian-backed attacks that are tailored to avoid a high-stakes military confrontation with the United States. Trump’s decision to kill Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last week was driven in part by a desire to break the tit-for-tat cycle by using a major act of retaliation to deter future attacks. But, experts said, that’s not a permanent fix to the crisis.
“It’s too soon to declare victory,” Bradley Bowman, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank that has been threatened by Iran for working with the administration, told the Washington Examiner. “They’re going to continue to do what they’ve been doing as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. But I think, post the Soleimani killing, the deterrence bar has been raised for the killing and injuring of Americans.”
Iran responded Tuesday night with a ballistic missile barrage that targeted two Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops. The retaliation proved relatively harmless, as the attack did not kill or wound anyone at either base, according to U.S. officials. Trump’s team hopes that Soleimani’s death at least will undermine Iran’s ability to manage its proxy networks.
“The death of Soleimani certainly is a conditional change across the board,” a senior State Department official told reporters on Wednesday. “It has been a disrupter on the capability of the Iranians . . . it’s been a disrupter on the ability and the lines of communication of the proxy forces that are resident in Iraq.”
That diminished control could have a downside that tests Trump’s willingness to punish Iran for “rogue” proxy attacks. “Iran is the responsible party, but that doesn’t mean there is a direct line of communication that necessarily is instituted,” Meadows said. “So you can be responsible but not necessarily putting forth the command.”
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