Returning to Its Roots: Air Force Looks to Deterrence and Nuclear Strategy

As many Americans wake-up to the smell of fresh brewed coffee and head for the driveway to pick up the newspaper, some of the US Air Force’s senior generals are finishing two days of high level meetings in London.

 

After almost two decades of neglect, deterrence and nuclear weapons strategy is once again a hot topic and one that led the Air Force Research Institute, the US Air Force’s internal think tank, to bring together generals, defense officials, and respected academics from the UK, France, Germany, and Spain.

 

With the nation transitioning from eight years of a conservative-leaning President to that of a left-leaning Democrat, national security strategy is sure to change. President George H. W. Bush’s “thousand points of light” was followed by President Clinton’s “globalization.” Both worked well enough, as long as Russia was weak and terrorists were not attacking the homeland.

 

The Bush Doctrine did prevent the United States from getting attacked a second time, but it also led to an expensive and unpopular war. After eight years of the Global War on Terror there are calls for a new strategy. Developing that new strategy is exactly why some of the America and Europe’s best and brightest are in London.

 

Why should we look to an old strategy to inform the new? Curtis LeMay and those that followed him at Strategic Air Command kept an aggressive and expansionist Soviet empire at bay for fifty years before the failures of socialist economics caused the USSR to collapse.

 

The simple fact is, deterrence worked then and it very well may work now. Admittedly, the overlay of the Cold War made the national security calculation simpler. The 21^st century is sure to shape up as a much more diverse period in time.

 

China may very well dominate Asia as Russia and the European Union vie for power in Europe. The United States is unlikely to be unseated from its throne in the Western Hemisphere, but we are unlikely to economically or militarily dominate the world as we have for the last two decades.

 

While America will remain a major power, despite current and future fiscal constraints that are likely to squeeze the DoD budget, as has already occurred in Europe. Thus, developing a deterrence strategy that can deter peer competitors (Russia, China), rogue regimes (Iran, North Korea), and non-state actors (al Qaeda, Hezbollah) is perhaps the best approach to take. After all, preventing war is much less expensive than fighting one. 

 

For a service that has refocused its attention to the nuclear enterprise, while also attempting to support the Army in irregular warfare, reexamining strategic deterrence may lead to a strategy that prevents future Iraqs while also deterring aggression from the likes of China or Iran.

 

If Air Force leaders return from London with a way forward, the Air Staff may find its task a bit easier and the Air Force Chief of Staff General Norton Schwartz may see brighter days ahead for the service. Although the Air Force is facing tough times today, it may be wise to recall the example of Rome.

 

When conquering Generals paraded through the streets of Rome a slave stood directly behind the general in his gilded chariot. Periodically the slave would lean in and whisper, “This too shall pass.” It was a reminder that success is fleeting. The same can be said of difficult times. The design and implementation of a successful deterrence strategy will serve the nation and the Air Force well.

 

Dr. Adam Lowther is the author of Americans and Asymmetric Conflict: Lebanon, Somalia, and Afghanistan and is an expert on deterrence and nuclear weapons strategy.