New data predict that the sale of adult diapers in China could exceed that of infant diapers very soon.
Adult diaper sales could exceed those of infants in the Chinese marketplace by 2025, according to those watching the Chinese adult diaper market.
“China is poised to pass one of the great but discreetly discussed demographic inflection points,” reports the Financial Times, “as [diaper] producers start prioritizing the rising army of active seniors over dwindling ranks of infants.”
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China’s elderly population has been on a steady rise for several years. The United Nations estimates that 330 million Chinese will be 65 or older by 2050.
At the same time, China’s birth rates are at their lowest since 1978. This lack of growth has led some analysts to believe that elderly needs may become more pressing than those of children in the coming years.
Investors and diaper producers think the crossover moment of product needs between the two demographics will occur in 2025 or earlier.
In response to these market changes, adult diaper providers are beginning to adapt. Adult diaper provider Unicharm has started shifting its marketing toward an elderly audience, sources told the Financial Times. A Unicharm spokesperson confirmed this shift but did not attribute it to demographic changes.
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CLSA, a capital markets and investment group, said the adult diaper market in China could grow from $1 billion in 2020 to $16 billion in 2028. By 2040, the market could be valued at $30 billion.
A 2020 review of scientific literature found that many Chinese women struggle with urinary incontinence of some kind. Up to 61% of Chinese women ages 60 and older suffered from urinary incontinence in 2019.
