Metro is planning for the likelihood that skyrocketing gas prices will funnel hordes more commuters onto a transit system that already is packed with riders during peak travel times.
“If gasoline does hit $5 a gallon, or even $6, how will that affect our ridership?” General Manager John Catoe said in an e-mail to employees Friday.
“There is a point at which we may see a massive move of commuters from driving to transit because of the cost,” he said. “How many will it take to overload our ability to handle them? I’ve got our planning department looking into that now.”
Ridership has increased each month this year from 2007, despite fare increases in January.
Local jurisdictions should have the authority to declare designated traffic lanes as bus-only lanes as a contingency, Catoe said. And the federal government and other employers should consider implementing mandatory flex-time schedules in which employees arrive and depart from work in staggered shifts.
Metro moves an average of about 740,000 rail passengers each weekday, with 520,000 of those trips occurring during the three-hour morning and evening rush hours, Metro planning chief Nat Bottigheimer said.
The agency generally comes closest to reaching its capacity between 8:15 and 8:45 a.m. each day, when commuters are trying to reach work by a 9 a.m. start time.
System limitations prevent Metro from adding additional trains to the system during rush hour, but if passengers staggered their commutes throughout the entire peak period, when Metro has all of its trains in use, the transit agency could handle 28 percent more rail riders, Bottigheimer said.
“Assuming that the bus and rail service we put on the street today were used to its fullest by commuters throughout the entire peak period, we could handle 140,000 new rail riders at current average passenger loading levels, and 30,000 new bus riders,” he said. “The percent increases are 28 percent [rail] and 11 percent [bus] respectively.”
Bottigheimer said the agency is just beginning to project which commuters would be most likely to switch to transit and how the agency would have to respond.
Recommendations could include leasing more buses and advocating more slug lines, in which drivers pick up strangers from Park and Ride lots or other designated locations to carpool with them, Bottigheimer said.
