The Challenge from China

The Wall Street Journal reports:

As we content ourselves with the fallacy that never again shall we have to fight large, technological opponents, China is transforming its forces into a full-spectrum military capable of major operations and remote power projection. Eventually the twain shall meet. By the same token, our sharp nuclear reductions and China’s acquisitions of ballistic-missile submarines and multiple-warhead mobile missiles will eventually come level. The China that has threatened to turn Los Angeles to cinder is arguably more cavalier about nuclear weapons than are we, and may find parity a stimulus to brinkmanship. Who will blink first, a Barack Obama (who even now blinks like Betty Boop) or a Hu Jintao? Our reductions are not solely nuclear. Consider the F-22, the world’s most capable air dominance aircraft, for which the original call for 648 has been whittled to 183, leaving, after maintenance, training, and test, approximately 125 to cover the entire world. The same story is evident without relief throughout our diminished air echelons, shrinking fleets, damaged and depleted stocks, and ground forces turned from preparation for heavy battle to the work of a gendarmerie.

Helprin is coming over 5×5 on his F-22 comments (we need at least twice as many to meet future threats), but Chinese nuclear parity? Eh, not so much. Though the Chinese have ICBMs, ballistic missile submarines, and aircraft capable of nuclear delivery, they lack the ability to accurately lay down atomic ordinance globally. Per the old Soviet model, you can substitute numbers for precision, but the DoD estimates that the Chinese only have something to the tune of 100 deployed warheads — that is, nukes that are ready to fly in a hot minute. I’m sure the exact numbers are classified, but with our 500 ICBMs alone we’ve easily got the ChiComs out gunned. Still, Helprin’s overall point is well taken. The Chinese recognize their nuclear shortcomings and are adjusting accordingly. That’s bad news for both America and her allies in the region. When China can operate under the protection of a fully operational strategic umbrella, the probably of a quick and dirty conventional war with Taiwan increases exponentially. Enter the importance of the F-22 and other state v. state weapon platforms. To prevent war in the Far East, we simply must maintain at least a decade’s worth of technological dominance over the Chinese — both nuclear and conventional.

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