The outcome of the November election is far from a sure thing.
If 2016 taught us anything, there are way too many variables — the shifting mood of the populace, quirks in our electoral system, and the unreliability of polls — to predict comfortably who will win.
But should Joe Biden be elected, there will be several changes at the Pentagon that he will almost certainly make right away:
Here are a few:
Transgender policy: One of the first changes a Biden administration is likely to make would be to reinstate the Obama-era policy of allowing transgender troops to serve openly without restriction. After President Trump tweeted an order in 2017 not to “accept or allow transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the U.S. military,” the Pentagon eventually drew up a hybrid policy that grandfathered in troops who transitioned under the previous policy and allowed recruits to serve so long as they did under their birth gender. Biden could change the policy back with the stroke of a pen.
Pride flags: When Defense Secretary Mark Esper prohibited displaying the Confederate battle flag on U.S. military bases, he didn’t technically ban them. He just left them off a list of authorized flags that could be flown or displayed at Defense Department installations. Notably absent from the list was the rainbow-colored LGBT pride flag. Ever since the repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell” in 2012, the Pentagon has hosted a Pride Day. Look for the flag to be added to the approved list.
Troops in Germany: Esper has argued that Trump’s order to withdraw almost 12,000 U.S. troops and their families from Germany is a smart move that will increase efficiency and deter Russia. Meanwhile, Trump has made clear the step is primarily designed to punish Germany for his belief that the NATO ally is not spending enough on its defense. The move will cost untold billions, and the Pentagon can’t say how much. Moving the headquarters of the U.S. European and Africa commands will be a mammoth, logistical task that will take months to plan, much less execute. Biden could order a halt to the move, at whatever stage it’s at, to review the plan’s military benefit.
New START: Trump has told Russian President Vladimir Putin that he has no interest in extending the New START nuclear arms treaty, negotiated by the Obama administration and signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. Trump argues any new agreement should include China, which is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal. The New START treaty, the last significant agreement in force limiting nuclear arms, expires in February 2021 but can be renewed automatically for five years by mutual understanding. Proponents of renewal argue a five-year extension will allow the new administration to engage China while preventing Russia from increasing the number of nuclear weapons aimed at the U.S. Expect Biden to take that advice and automatically extend the New START in his first few weeks in office.
New nuclear weapons: The Trump administration, having withdrawn from the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, has moved ahead with plans to develop a nuclear version of its submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missile as an additional deterrent to Russia. Arms control advocates, in particular former Clinton-era Defense Secretary William Perry, argue nuclear-tipped cruise missiles are the most destabilizing of all nuclear weapons because, in flight, they cannot be distinguished from conventional cruise missiles. Look for Biden to put the program on hold.
Closing Guantanamo Bay: Just days after taking office in 2009, President Barack Obama signed an executive order requiring that the U.S. prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, be shuttered within one year. There are still some 40 prisoners at the camp, which is becoming a de facto nursing home for aging terror suspects, at the cost of approximately $11 million a year per detainee. By comparison, housing a prisoner in a supermax prison in the U.S. costs well under $100,000. Should Democrats gain control of the Senate, count on Biden to pay homage to Obama by trying to succeed where he failed, by closing the camp and moving the last prisoners to the U.S.
Border security: Under a Biden administration, military construction funds would no longer be tapped to fund border barrier construction, nor would active-duty troops be deployed to the border. It technically requires no action from Biden because Trump requested no border security money in the 2021 defense budget that runs through Sept. 30. Democrats are likely to approve modest funding for the repair and upkeep of border walls and fencing but would end funding for the hundreds of additional miles of wall that Trump made a signature issue of his 2016 campaign.
More women: Biden, who promised to pick a woman of color to be his running mate and has pledged to have a far more diverse Cabinet than Trump’s, will undoubtedly appoint more women and minorities to key Pentagon posts. It’s entirely likely he may even appoint the first female secretary of defense. He wouldn’t be the first to appoint the first black chairman of the joint chiefs or the first black person to head a military service. Those generals — Colin Powell in 1989 and Charles Brown in 2020 — were appointed by Republican Presidents George H.W. Bush and Trump.
Some things won’t change right away.
Overall defense spending: One of Trump’s notable first-term achievements was getting Republicans and Democrats in Congress to compromise on the budget, trading off increases in domestic spending for a big boost in defense spending. During the Obama years, the intransigence of both sides resulted in mandatory spending caps known as sequestration. But after three years of bigger Pentagon budgets ($700 billion, $716 billion, and $740 billion), defense spending is expected to stay flat no matter who is elected president, primarily because of the significant deficits being run up to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. And while conventional wisdom is that Republicans are generally more pro-defense than Democrats, in the recent past, Democratic presidents have been reluctant to make deep cuts in military spending for fear of looking weak on national security.
Afghanistan: Trump intends to have fewer than 5,000 troops left in Afghanistan by Election Day, but the full withdrawal of U.S. forces isn’t scheduled until next May. That is also contingent on the Taliban reaching a peace agreement with the U.S.-backed Afghan government. Obama also tried to end U.S. involvement in the war in Afghanistan, but the Taliban kept fighting. Despite a consensus among current U.S. military commanders that the U.S. should continue to keep a small counterterrorism force in Afghanistan to hunt down al Qaeda and ISIS terrorists, Biden is unlikely to undermine the Trump peace initiative if it’s making any measurable progress.
The Joint Chiefs: The one institution that provides stability during a presidential transition is the military. Like Trump, Biden won’t have the opportunity to appoint new members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff unless he fires someone, something Trump once threatened to do but didn’t. While the Pentagon will almost certainly get a new civilian leader, Army Gen. Mark Milley will continue to serve as the senior military adviser to the president until October 2022, unless Biden were to lose confidence in him. About three years in, Biden will begin to nominate his chiefs, at which point he could become the first president to pick women to join the all-male club.
Jamie McIntyre is the Washington Examiner’s senior writer on defense and national security. His morning newsletter, “Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense,” is free and available by email subscription at dailyondefense.com.
