Brian Schaffner points out a potential oddity in this week’s Oregon primary. The state has a vote-by-mail system, so while the election’s tomorrow, many of Oregon’s citizens have already voted. That makes polling a little more challenging. So here’s the interesting twist in two recent surveys. While Obama holds a healthy lead among those who say they intend to vote, the race appears much closer among those who say they’ve already cast their ballots. This is true in both a Survey USA poll and in this American Research Group survey. Both show a statistical tie among those who already have voted. According to Schaffner:
In addition to Clinton’s strong performance among voters who have cast their ballots, the most recent polling at Pollster.com and survey results posted on Real Clear Politics show the race closing in most recent surveys. Instead of his previous near double-digit lead, Obama is ahead by just four or five points in most current polls. Moreover, as many who followed the primary exit polls closely have pointed out, Senator Clinton has consistently done well among late-deciders — another factor that might cause the race to close. These findings might reflect Oregonians taking a second look at Clinton — or perhaps they tell pollsters they plan to vote for Obama, but then reconsider and mail in a Clinton ballot. I still think the odds of Senator Clinton winning Oregon are long, but this oddity in the numbers among those who have already voted and her ability to close well may keep this race competitive.
